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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Leading Economic Index for June 2020

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2020 this morning:


Index for June 2020: 102.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)


Predicted: +3.0%
  • Actual: +2.00% (+2.00 points)


  • LEI for May 2020: 100.0

  • LEI for April 2020: 96.9
  • LEI for March 2020: 103.4

  • LEI for February 2020: 111.8
  • LEI for January 2020: 112.0

  • LEI for December 2019: 111.4

  • LEI for November 2019: 111.6

  • LEI for October 2019: 111.4

  • LEI for September 2019: 111.6


The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™


CHART: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth June 2020 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth
June 2020 Update


CHART: Leading Economic Index - June 2020 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index - June 2020 Update

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 2.0 percent in June to 102.0 (2016=100), following a 3.2 percent increase in May and a 6.3 percent decrease in April.

'The June increase in the LEI reflects improvements brought about by the incremental reopening of the economy, with labor market conditions and stock prices in particular contributing positively,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'However, broader financial conditions and the consumers’ outlook on business conditions still point to a weak economic outlook. Together with a resurgence of new COVID-19 cases across much of the nation, the LEI suggests that the US economy will remain in recession territory in the near term.'



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