Economy: Leading Economic Index for April 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for April 2024: 101.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.21% (-5.6 points)

==============

LEI for March 2024: 102.4
LEI for February 2024: 102.7
LEI for January 2024: 102.5
LEI for December 2023: 103.0
LEI for November 2023: 103.3
LEI for October 2023: 103.8
LEI for September 2023: 104.7
LEI for August 2023: 105.5
LEI for July 2023: 105.9
LEI for June 2023: 106.1
LEI for May 2023: 106.7
LEI for April 2023: 107.4
LEI for March 2023: 108.3
LEI for February 2023: 109.6
LEI for January 2023: 110.2
LEI for December 2022: 110.7
LEI for November 2022: 111.5
LEI for October 2022: 112.5
LEI for September 2022: 113.5
LEI for August 2022: 116.4
LEI for July 2022: 116.4
LEI for June 2022: 117.1
LEI for May 2022: 117.9
LEI for April 2022: 118.7
LEI for March 2022: 119.3
LEI for February 2022: 119.4
LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
Building permits for new private housing
The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Average weekly manufacturing hours
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2024 UPDATE

==============

From Today's Report:

"...'Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year.

While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in April 2024 to 112.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2% in March. As a result, the CEI was up 0.9% over the six-month period ending April 2024, slightly ahead of its 0.8% increase over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month. Personal income less transfer payments made the largest positive contribution to the Index..."

==============