Leading Economic Index for April 2025
Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2025:
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Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.1%
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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
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Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.1%
- Actual: -1.00% (-1.0 point Month-on-Month)
- Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.26% (-2.3 points)
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- LEI for March 2025: 100.4
- LEI for February 2025: 101.2
- LEI for January 2025: 101.4
- LEI for December 2024: 101.6
- LEI for November 2024: 101.7
- LEI for October 2024: 101.4
- LEI for September 2024: 101.7
- LEI for August 2024: 102.1
- LEI for July 2024: 102.4
- LEI for June 2024: 102.9
- LEI for May 2024: 101.3
- LEI for April 2024: 101.7
The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
- The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
- Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
- Building permits for new private housing
- The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
- Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Average weekly manufacturing hours
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
- Leading Credit Index™
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6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
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From Today's Report:
"...'The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.
Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.'..."
Labels: consumer, consumers, disinflation, Economy, FedPrimeRate, FedPrimeRate.com, inflation, Leading_Economic_Index, leading_economic_indicators, Recession_Risk, Recession_Signals, Recession_Warning
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posted by Steve Brown | 5/20/2025 11:14:00 AM
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