Leading Economic Index for October 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for October 2024:

==============

Index for October 2024: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.4% (-0.4 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.14% (-4.3 points)

==============

• LEI for September 2024: 99.9
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
OCTOBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...''The largest negative contributor to the LEI’s decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast United States.

Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead.''..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024:

=========================================

CPI During October 2024: 315.664

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.115% (+0.363 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.6 %(+7.993 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.202% (+0.649 points) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.33% (+10.378 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During October 2023: 307.671

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
OCTOBER 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  September, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for September 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2024:

==============

Index for September 2024: 99.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.5% (-0.5 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.78% (-5.0 points)

==============

• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
SEPTEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above.

Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024:

=========================================

CPI During September 2024: 315.301

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.16% (+0.505 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.44 %(+7.512 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.34% (+1.092 points) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.31% (+10.292 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During September 2023: 307.789

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  August, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for August 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2024:

==============

Index for August 2024: 100.2 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.02% (-5.3 points)

==============

• LEI for July 2024: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
AUGUST 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index.

Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024:

=========================================

CPI During August 2024: 314.796

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.081% (+0.256 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.53 %(+7.77 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.25% (+0.803 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.197% (+9.914 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2023: 307.026

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - JULY 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for July 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for July 2024: 100.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.19% (-5.5 points)

==============

• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JULY 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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