Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Third (FINAL) Estimate for Q1, 2025

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third (final) estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +2.4%

• Actual: -0.5%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q1, 2025 - FINAL ESTIMATE / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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Leading Economic Index for May 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2025:

==============

Index for May 2025: 99.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.27% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally,' said  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index.

However, consumers’ pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May’s overall decline.

With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal.

The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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U.S. Factory Shipments During April 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for April 2025:

========

Predicted: -3.5%

• Actual: -3.69% (-22,804,000,000)

========

• April 2025 New Shipments: $594,614,000,000.
  
  
• March 2025 New Shipments: $617,418,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$3,565,000,000 | +0.61% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
APRIL 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Leading Economic Index for April 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2025:

==============

Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -1.00% (-1.0 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.26% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First (Advance) Estimate for Q1, 2025

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +2.4%

• Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q1, 2025 - First Estimate / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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Leading Economic Index for March 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2025:

==============

Index for March 2025: 100.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.69% (-0.7 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.86% (-1.9 points)

==============

• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements:

1. consumer expectations dropped further,
   
   
2. stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and,
   
   
3. new orders in manufacturing softened.

That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): FINAL Estimate for Q4, 2024 + Full Year 2024

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024, and the full-year reading on GDP:

============

Previous quarter: +3.1%

• Actual: +2.4%
  
• >>>> Full Year: +2.8%
  

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: Contributions to real GDP
by Industry Group - Q4, 2024

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

 

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Leading Economic Index for February 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2025:
==============

Index for February 2025: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.46% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6 
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February.

Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline.

On a positive note, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative, have remained on an upward trend since the end of 2023, suggesting that headwinds in the economy as of February may have moderated compared to last year.

However, given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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U.S. Factory Shipments During January 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for January 2025:

========

Predicted: +1.5%

• Actual: +1.68% (+9,775,000,000)

========

• January 2025 New Shipments: $589,935,000,000.
  
  
• December 2024 New Shipments: $580,160,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$18,677,000,000 | +3.5% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
JANUARY 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Leading Economic Index for January 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2025:
==============

Index for January 2025: 101.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.07% (-1.1 points)

==============

• LEI for December 2024: 101.8
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which -- alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing -- drove the monthly decline.

However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022.

Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead.

We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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U.S. Factory Shipments During December 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for December 2024:

========

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.888% (-5,181,000,000)

========

• December 2024 New Shipments: $578,508,000,000.
  
  
• November 2024 New Shipments: $583,689,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  -$3,201,000,000 | -0.55% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
DECEMBER 2024 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q4, 2024

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024:

============

Previous quarter: +3.1%

• Actual: +2.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q4, 2024 - First Estimate / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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Leading Economic Index for December 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2024:
==============

Index for December 2024: 101.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.45% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.0
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.

Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December.

Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead.

Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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