Leading Economic Index for JULY 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July, 2026:

==============

Index for July, 2026: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: +0.2% (+0.2 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.71% (+0.7 point)

============== 

• LEI for June, 2026: 99.3
  
  
• LEI for May, 2026: 99.4
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JULY 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"....'The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 114.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in June. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5% over the six months between January and July 2026, after remaining flat over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): FIRST / ADVANCE Estimate for Q2, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FIRST estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +2.1%

• Actual: +1.5%

============

GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Percent Change from Previous Quarter

Q2, 2026 - FIRST ESTIMATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD / FINAL Estimate for Q1, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its THIRD / FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +0.5%

• Actual: +2.1%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP

Q1, 2026 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Leading Economic Index for JUNE 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June, 2026:

==============

Index for June, 2026: 99.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.3% (+0.3 point)

============== 

• LEI for May, 2026: 99.3
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories...

...'Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year-on-year GDP growth for 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Leading Economic Index for MAY 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May, 2026:

==============

Index for May, 2026: 99.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: +0.1% (+0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -0.2% (-0.2 point)

============== 

• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1 
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag.

Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead.

Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costs -- especially gas and energy -- are rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment, and shopping.

The good news is that businesses are spending heavily on AI, data centers, and new technology, helping to keep the economy growing, while  consumers pull back spending.

The overall job market is expected to stay fairly healthy in 2026, but economic growth will be weaker than in recent years.

The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): SECOND / PRELIMINARY Estimate for Q1, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its SECOND estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +0.5%

• Actual: +1.6%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Real GDP
Percent Change from the Preceding Quarter

Q1, 2026 - SECOND ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Leading Economic Index for APRIL 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April, 2026:

==============

Index for April, 2026: 97.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: +0.1% (+0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.72% (-1.7 points)

============== 

• LEI for March, 2026: 97.3
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 97.9
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 97.6
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 97.6   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 97.9  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April, 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March, 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February, 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January, 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December, 2024: 101.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI increased slightly in April, driven mainly by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits only for two and more units,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead.

Strong investment in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy production likely will have a positive impact on growth and sustain business spending, but may only partially offset weakness on the consumer side.

Higher gasoline and energy costs -- paired with weak hiring -- will likely erode household purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income consumers. The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% y/y GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): FIRST / ADVANCE Estimate for Q1, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FIRST estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +0.5%

• Actual: +2.0%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP

Q1, 2026 - FIRST ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Leading Economic Index for MARCH 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March, 2026:

==============

Index for March, 2026: 97.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: -0.61% (-0.6 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.09% (-3.1 points)

============== 

• LEI for February, 2026: 97.9
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 97.6
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 97.6   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 97.8  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April, 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March, 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February, 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January, 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December, 2024: 101.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MARCH 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers’ purchasing power.

The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity.

The Conference Board revised its US GDP growth forecast to well below 2%, down to 1.6% Y/Y for 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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U.S. Factory Shipments (New Orders) During FEBRUARY 2026

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and New Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for February, 2026:

========

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.4% (+2,297,000,000)

========

• February, 2026 New Orders: $578,812,000,000.
  
  
• January, 2026 New Orders: $576,515,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  
  +$22,453,000,000 (+4.04%) 
  

 ========

The highlighted percentages represent the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers; not seasonally adjusted.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
FEBRUARY 2026 Update
(seasonally adjusted.)

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD and FINAL Estimate for Q4, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its THIRD and FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +4.4%

• Actual: +0.5%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP

Q4, 2025 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): SECOND Estimate for Q4, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its SECOND estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +4.4%

• Actual: +0.7%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change

Q4, 2025 - SECOND ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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