Leading Economic Index for June 2021

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2021 this morning:

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Index for June 2021: 115.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.9%

• Actual: +0.6999% (+0.8 point)

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• LEI for May 2021: 114.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2021: 113.0
  
  
• LEI for March 2021: 111.6
  
  
• LEI for February 2021: 110.1
   
• LEI for January 2021: 110.1
  
  
• LEI for December 2020: 109.6
  
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Chart: Leading Economic Index
June 2021 Update

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth
June 2021 Update

 

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From Today's Report:

"...'June’s gain in the U.S. LEI was broad-based and, despite negative contributions from housing permits and average workweek, suggests that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.  'While month-over-month growth slowed somewhat in June, the LEI’s overall upward trend—which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020—accelerated further in Q2. The Conference Board still forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 6.6 percent for 2021 and a healthy 3.8 percent for 2022.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  
  

• Click Here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.
  
  

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