Economy: Employment Situation Report for September 2021

The Employment Situation Report for September 2021 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +200,000
Actual: +194,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.8%
Previous Month: 5.2%
12 Months Previous: 7.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.5%
Previous Month: 8.8%
12 Months Previous: 12.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.62% (+$0.19)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.576% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +1.2% (+$12.74)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.576% (+$46.98)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.6%
Previous Month: 61.7%
12 Months Previous: 61.4%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.8 hours
Actual: 34.8 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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From Today's Report:

"...The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 6.0 million in September, little changed over the month but up by 959,000 since February 2020. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job.

In September, 5.0 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic -- that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 5.6 million in August. Among those who reported in September that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 15.5 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the prior month.

Among those not in the labor force in September, 1.6 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, little changed from August. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 194,000 in September. Thus far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 561,000. Nonfarm employment has increased by 17.4 million since a recent trough in April 2020 but is down by 5.0 million, or 3.3 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In September, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 38,000, from +1,053,000 to +1,091,000, and the change for August was revised up by 131,000, from +235,000 to +366,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 169,000 higher than previously reported..."

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CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment
September 2021 Update

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CHART: U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate
September 2021 Update

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* = The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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