Leading Economic Index for August 2021

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2021 this morning:

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Index for August 2021: 117.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.7%

• Actual: +0.948% (+1.1 points)

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• LEI for July 2021: 116.0
  
  
• LEI for June 2021: 115.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2021: 114.4
  
  
• LEI for April 2021: 113.0
  
  
• LEI for March 2021: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2021: 110.1
   
• LEI for January 2021: 110.1
  
  
• LEI for December 2020: 109.6
  
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Chart: Leading Economic Index
August 2021 Update

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Chart: Leading Economic Index
Six-Month Growth
August 2021 Update

 

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From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'While the Delta variant -- alongside rising inflation fears -- could create headwinds for labor markets and the consumer spending outlook in the near term, the trend in the LEI is consistent with robust economic growth in the reminder of the year. Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach nearly 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still-robust 4.0 percent for 2022.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  
  

• Click Here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.
  
  

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