Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023:
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Predicted: -0.20
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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.
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Understanding The CFNAI:
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
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Predicted: -0.20
- Actual (CFNAI): +0.07
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- Previous Month (revised): -0.37
- 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.22
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:
- Production and income;
- Employment, unemployment, and hours;
- Personal consumption and housing; and
- Sales, orders, and inventories.
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.
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CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Inflation Cycles
April 2023 Update
April 2023 Update
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Understanding The CFNAI:
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
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Labels: CFNAI, Chicago_Fed, Consumption, Economic_Indicators, Federal_Reserve, hard_data, Home Sales, housing, Income, inflation, jobs, National_Activity_Index, Orders, Production
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posted by Steve Brown | 5/26/2023 03:59:00 PM
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