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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) February 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2024 was released this morning:

Previous Month: +0.3%
Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.6%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.6%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - February 2024 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
February 2024 Update

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Thursday, February 29, 2024

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%
  • Actual: +1.0%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.3% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.4%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - January 2024 Update
CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - January 2024 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 112.0
  • Actual: 106.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 110.9

  • Change from Previous Month: -3.79% (-4.2 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024.

The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions
-- fell back to 147.2 (1985 = 100) in February from 154.9 in January. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- slipped to 79.8 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 81.5 in January. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals recession ahead.

'The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.'

Peterson added: 'February’s write-in responses revealed that while overall inflation remained the main preoccupation of consumers, they are now a bit less concerned about food and gas prices, which have eased in recent months. But they are more concerned about the labor market situation and the US political environment.'

Assessments of the present situation weakened in February, as consumers’ views of both business conditions and the employment situation became less favorable. Furthermore, consumers’ assessments of their personal financial situation (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index) also weakened.

Consumer expectations for the next six months deteriorated in February, driven by renewed pessimism regarding future business and labor market conditions. Consumers were also a bit less optimistic about their family financial situation over the next six months (a measure not included in calculating the Expectations Index). Additionally, consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months picked back up after falling over the previous three months.

On a six-month basis, buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances dipped slightly. The share of consumers planning a vacation over the next six months also declined. Expectations that interest rates will rise over the year ahead picked up slightly to 42.7%, which may have influenced buying plans. Meanwhile, consumers remained upbeat about stock prices over the year ahead.

Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down further to 5.2% in February. After peaking at 7.9% in mid-2022, expected
inflation has now fallen to its lowest level since March 2020, when it stood at 4.5%. This aligns with continued slowing in consumer price inflation in government reports and fewer complaints about food and energy prices in our survey.

Present Situation

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions fell slightly in February.

    21.2% of consumers said business conditions were 'good,' down slightly from 21.3% in January.
    17.1% said business conditions were 'bad,' up from 15.3%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also less positive in February.

    41.3% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' down from 42.7% in January.

    13.5% of consumers said jobs were 'hard to get,' up from 11.0%.

Expectations Six Months Hence          

Consumers were, on balance, more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in February.

    14.8% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 16.7% in January.
    15.5% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 16.0%.

Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was more pessimistic in February.

    14.7% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 15.6% in January.
    17.3% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 16.7%.

Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects was, on balance, more optimistic in February.

    16.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 17.1% in January.
    11.3% expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12.5%.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk

    Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.

    Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.

    Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.

    Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.

    Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.

    Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.
.."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - February 2024 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
February 2024 Update

================

CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession Over The Next 12 Months - FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE

CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession
Over The Next 12 Months
 FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE

================

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Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Leading Economic Index for January 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for January 2024: 102.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

  • Actual: -0.39% (-0.4 point M/M)

  • Change from 12 Months Ago: -6.8% (-7.5 points)

==============
  • LEI for December 2023: 103.1

  • LEI for November 2023: 103.3

  • LEI for October 2023: 103.7

  • LEI for September 2023: 104.7

  • LEI for August 2023: 105.5

  • LEI for July 2023: 105.9

  • LEI for June 2023: 106.1

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.7

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.4

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - January 2024 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
January 2024 UPDATE
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4% in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% decline in December 2023. The LEI contracted by 3.0% over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous six months.

'The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024.) As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016 = 100), after a 0.2% increase in December 2023. The CEI expanded by 1.0% in the six-month period ending January 2024, down from a 0.8% growth rate over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with payroll employment and personal income less transfer payments having the strongest contributions, followed by a much smaller positive contribution from manufacturing and trade sales.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. rose by 0.4% in January 2024 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.4% in December 2023. The LAG is up by 0.9% over the six-month period from July to January 2024, following a decline of 0.1% over the previous six months.

The LEI still declined in January 2024 but at the slowest pace since March 2023..
."
==============
 

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Saturday, February 17, 2024

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2024 was released this morning:

Previous Month: -0.1%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.9%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.2%
Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - January 2024 Update

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
January 2024 Update

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Thursday, February 15, 2024

Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: +0.8%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -1.3%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: +0.8%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -2.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.


Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 CHART: Import Price Index - January 2024 Update

CHART: Import Price Index
January 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index - January 2024 Update

CHART: Export Price Index
 January 2024 Update

===
============


===============

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Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2024:


=========================================

CPI During January 2024: 308.417

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.545% (+1.671 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.09% (+9.247 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.55% (+1.716 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.86% (+11.661 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During January 2023: 299.170

========================================

 
 CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
January 2024 Update

========================================

 


=========================================

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Friday, January 26, 2024

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.7%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (unrevised):
  • Actual: +0.3%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: -0.1%
Actual: +0.2% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, January 12, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023:


=========================================

CPI During December 2023: 306.746

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.1% (-0.305 point)

  • Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.352% (+9.949 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% (+0.301 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.93% (+11.794 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During December 2022: 296.797

========================================

 
CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change December - 2023 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
December 2023 Update

========================================

 


=========================================

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Friday, December 22, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3% (revised):
  • Actual: +0.4%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.2%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update
CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, December 01, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (revised):
  • Actual: +0.2%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: FLAT 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.


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Friday, November 17, 2023

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.3%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - October 2023 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
October 2023 Update

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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023:


=========================================

CPI During October 2023: 307.671

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -0.038% (-0.118 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.241% (+9.659 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.181% (+0.563 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.031% (+12.065 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During September 2022: 298.012

========================================

 
CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - October 2023 Update

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
October 2023 Update

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Wednesday, November 01, 2023

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 101.0
  • Actual: 102.6

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Previous Month (revised): 104.3

  • Change from Previous Month: -1.63% (-1.7 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations index is still below 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024.

'Consumer confidence fell again in October 2023, marking three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'October’s retreat reflected pullbacks in both the Present Situation and Expectations Index.

Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.

Worries around war / conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - October 2023 Update
CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2023 Update

================


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Saturday, October 28, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.7%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2
  • Actual: +0.3%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.4%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.7%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - September 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - September 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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