ISM Manufacturing Index for APRIL 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for April, 2026:

=========

Predicted: 53.0%

• Actual: 52.7% (month-on-month = FLAT)

=========

Previous month: 52.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•    “Demand for manufactured goods is trending higher versus last year; however, geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil and diesel prices continue to weigh on demand. Many customers are exercising caution and remain in a wait-and-watch mode.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “Continued tariffs on products utilized in our product lines are being monitored by the business, with the business working to mitigate or limit tariff risk. Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, as it pertains to commodity and energy markets remains a concern and is being monitored by the business. Supply chain risk concerns pertaining to increased cost and transit time for rerouted shipments due to conflict in the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal. These conditions are being monitored by the business and rerouting measures have been implemented where possible.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “Continuing fluctuation in U.S. tariffs as well as market constraints for certain materials are affecting our current business. U.S. support of AI-related industry is also in flux which is causing some customer and investment hesitancy.”
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

• “All products tied to crude, polyethylene resin or energy (liquified natural gas) have seen multiple increase spikes tied to the Iran invasion and market supply inflation.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “Revenues are very strong. However, price increases are similar to a few years ago with the supply chain crisis. All imports from China are up 15 percent to 25 percent, which is impossible for us to absorb or to fully pass along. Our suppliers in China are telling us that oil is at an all-time high, which is putting huge challenges on their cost structures.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “General uncertainty over the total impact of the U.S.-Iran war. Have not yet started to see the full impact of fuel increases but are aware they are coming.”
   [Machinery] 

• “Business levels have been decent this year, in line with the same period last year and improved from the second half of 2025. However, higher cost pressures are impacting margins.”
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

• “Commodity markets remain mixed, with pockets of easing offset by ongoing volatility. Dairy and some soft commodities have cooled, while oils and grain-related inputs remain elevated given biofuel demand and feed costs. Pricing is still sensitive to policy changes, weather and global trade dynamics.”
   [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products] 

• “Our business remains strong and stable, but there are a lot of concerns in the geopolitical arena. If the Iran conflict persists, the impact on market pricing and supply continuity could be extreme. Electronics component market remains very volatile (pricing and continuity) based on AI.”
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

April 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
April 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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Leading Economic Index for MARCH 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March, 2026:

==============

Index for March, 2026: 97.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: -0.61% (-0.6 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.09% (-3.1 points)

============== 

• LEI for February, 2026: 97.9
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 97.6
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 97.6   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 97.8  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April, 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March, 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February, 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January, 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December, 2024: 101.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MARCH 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers’ purchasing power.

The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity.

The Conference Board revised its US GDP growth forecast to well below 2%, down to 1.6% Y/Y for 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for MARCH 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: +0.9%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.2%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.6%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.6% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: -0.1%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.7% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.2%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.0%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending April 24, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 24, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -13,400,000 Barrels (-1.54%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +18,400,000 Barrels (+2.19%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 857,400,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for MARCH 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March, 2026:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.20

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.03

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
March 2026 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending April 17, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 17, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -2,200,000 Barrels (-0.252%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +30,200,000 Barrels (+3.59%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 870,800,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Import and Export Price Indexes for MARCH 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for March, 2026:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.9%
Actual: +0.8%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +1.3%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +1.5%
Actual: +1.6%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.6%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +3.5%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MARCH 2026 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MARCH 2026 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending April 10, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 10, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -5,000,000 Barrels (-0.57%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +33,100,000 Barrels (+3.94%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 873,000,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for MARCH 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for March, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 98.0

• Actual: 95.8

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -3.04% (-3.0 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: -1.64% (-1.6 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

MARCH 2026 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...CREDIT MARKETS

In March, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions remained at a net -5% (seasonally adjusted). A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, unchanged from February and close to the historical average of a net 6%. In March, a net -3% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, unchanged from February. The average interest rate paid on short maturity loans was 7.9% in March, down 0.3 points from February. Twenty-four percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 1 point from February.

...Inflation will become even more of a problem as oil prices respond to developments in the Iran conflict. Only a few ships are getting through Hormuz each day compared to well over 100 pre-war, slowing not only the supply of oil, but many other important products as well. The Federal Reserve is likely to stay steady now, but a rate hike becomes more likely if the current elevated inflation environment persists. The share of small business owners raising average selling prices has stabilized at rates that prevailed at the end of the last administration (CPI up 20% over 4 years). Lower oil prices will benefit all concerned, but that may take a while even after the Strait [is back to normal]..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 98.8

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 97.4

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MARCH 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MARCH, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +4.0% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.5% 

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +4.9% (prior = +2.5%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.7% (prior = +3.8%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
MARCH 2026 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for MARCH 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During March, 2026: 330.213

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.9%

->  Actual: +1.05% (+3.428 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.26% (+10.414 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.41%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.34% (+1.149 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.6% (+8.458 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.46%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During March, 2025: 319.799

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
MARCH 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for FEBRUARY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.1%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: -0.1%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): -0.1% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: -0.5%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.1%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending April 3, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 3, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +1,300,000 Barrels (+0.15%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +38,900,000 Barrels (+4.64%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 878,000,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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