Leading Economic Index for June 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2024: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.71% (-5.0 points)

==============

• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JUNE 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment.

However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.'

NOTE: Starting with the September 2023 release, Leading Credit Index™ calculations (from 2020 to current) use the SOFR Overnight Financing Rate in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year instead of LIBOR rate. LIBOR remains in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year from 1990 to 2020..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: -0.2% (revised)
Actual: FLAT

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.6%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: -0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
June 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
June 2024 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2024 was released this morning:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6%  (prior = +2.2%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.1%  (prior = +3.2%)

===============================

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2024 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024:

=========================================

CPI During June 2024: 314.175

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.034% (+0.106 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.97% (+9.066 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.117% (+0.374 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.27% (+10.093 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June 2023: 305.109

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
June 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2024

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for June 2024:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.5% (-0.2 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month (revised): 48.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'High volume of customer orders.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

•     'Customers continue to cut orders with short notice, causing a ripple effect throughout lower-tier suppliers.'
   [Transportation Equipment]
  

•     'Consumer demand and inventories are no longer stable at retail and food service establishments.'
   [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products]
  

•     'While orders are still steady, inventory from the previous month is enough to satisfy current- and near-term commitments.'
   [Computer + Electronic Products]
  

•     'Customers ordering more to create buffer stocks (in case of) future shortages.'
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components]
  

•     'Order levels in two of our main divisions are indicating weak demand, and now we must work to reduce inventory levels.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products]
  

•     'Sales backlog is decreasing. We have furloughed a portion of our workforce as a result.'
   [Machinery]
  

•     'The level of production is lower due to decreased demand for products.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  

•     'Elevated financing costs have dampened demand for residential investment. We have reduced inventories of production components.'
   [Wood Products]
  

•     'Orders have increased slightly due to seasonal restocking.'
   [Plastics + Rubber Products]
  

==========

 

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
 June 2024 Update

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.5%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - May 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 100.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.3

• Change from Previous Month: -0.9% (-0.9 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Consumers’ Persistent Concerns about the Future Continues to Weigh on Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped in June to 100.4 (1985 = 100), down from 101.3 in May. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 141.5 from 140.8 last month.

However, the Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- fell to 73.0 in June, down from 74.9 in May. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.

'Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

'Consumers expressed mixed feelings this month: their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled. Meanwhile, for the second month in a row, consumers were a bit less pessimistic about future labor market conditions. However, their expectations for both future income and business conditions weakened, weighing down the overall Expectations Index.'

'The decline in confidence between May and June was centered on consumers aged 35-54. By contrast, those under 35 and those 55 and older saw confidence improve this month. No clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.'

Peterson added: 'Compared to May, consumers were less concerned about a forthcoming recession. However, consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Financial Situation -- both currently and over the next six months -- was less positive.' (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®)

Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down slightly from 5.4% to 5.3%. June’s write-in responses revealed that elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, continued to impact consumers’ views of the economy, followed by the labor market and US political situation. Notably, the share of respondents believing the 2024 election would impact the economy was low in comparison to write-ins in June of 2016 and slightly higher than in 2020.

Consumers were positive about the stock market, with 48.4% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 23.5% expecting a decrease and 28.1% expecting no change. Meanwhile, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months dropped to 52.6%, its lowest level since February.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were largely unchanged and remained historically low in June. Buying plans for cars also stalled. Meanwhile, buying plans for most big-ticket appliances and smartphones increased slightly, though fewer consumers planned to buy a laptop or a PC.

The share of consumers planning a vacation† over the next six months continued to increase and remains above last June’s level. More consumers planned to vacation in the United States than abroad. As in recent years, more people plan to travel by car than by plane. Overall, the share of consumers planning to go on vacation is still about 10 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
June 2024 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
  ================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2024:

=========================================

CPI During May 2024: 314.069

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.17% (+0.521 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.27% (+9.942 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.205% (+0.651 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.42% (+10.533 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May 2023: 304.127

========================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
May 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.5%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - April 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 102.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.5

• Change from Previous Month: +4.62% (+4.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index. Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years.

'Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups. In terms of income, those making over $100K expressed the largest rise in confidence. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.'

Peterson added: 'According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%. Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55.2% to 56.2%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Financial Situation both currently and over the next six months (measures not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index) deteriorated slightly.

'The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns. The Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose again in May, with more consumers believing recession is ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’. This contrasts with CEO assessments of recession risk: according to our CEO Confidence survey, only 35% of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Consumers were nonetheless upbeat about the stock market, with 48.2% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 25.4% expecting a decrease and 26.4 expecting no change.'

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012. While still relatively depressed, buying plans for autos rose slightly for a second month, and buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months. Meanwhile, buying plans for electronics products were largely unchanged except for smartphones, which saw renewed interest...."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
May 2024 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
  ================

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Leading Economic Index for April 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for April 2024: 101.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.21% (-5.6 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.7
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.5
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.0
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year.

While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in April 2024 to 112.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2% in March. As a result, the CEI was up 0.9% over the six-month period ending April 2024, slightly ahead of its 0.8% increase over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month. Personal income less transfer payments made the largest positive contribution to the Index..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.6% (revised)
Actual: +0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -1.0%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
April 2024 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
April 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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