Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for JUNE 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June, 2026:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.02

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.05

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

================== 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles

JUNE 2026 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Housing Starts During JUNE 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for June, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,199,000

• Actual: 1,427,000

Month-on-Month Change: +19.02% (+228,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.48% (+48,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,410,000

• Actual: 1,367,000

Month-on-Month Change: -3.05% (-43,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -2.29%  (-32,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JUNE, 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Housing Starts During MAY 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,392,000

• Actual: 1,177,000

Month-on-Month Change: -15.45% (-215,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -8.69% (-112,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,423,000

• Actual: 1,413,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.7% (-10,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.21%  (-3,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MAY, 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Housing Starts During APRIL 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for April, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,507,000

• Actual: 1,465,000

Month-on-Month Change: -2.79% (-42,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +4.64% (+65,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,363,000

• Actual: 1,442,000

Month-on-Month Change: +5.8% (+79,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.21%  (-3,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
APRIL 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Housing Starts During MARCH 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for March, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading: 1,356,000

• Actual: 1,502,000

Month-on-Month Change: +10.77% (+146,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +10.85% (+147,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,538,000

• Actual: 1,372,000

Month-on-Month Change: -10.79% (-166,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.36%  (-109,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MARCH 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for MARCH 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March, 2026:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.20

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.03

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
March 2026 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Housing Starts During JANUARY 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for January, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,387,000

• Actual: 1,487,000

Month-on-Month Change: +7.21% (+100,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +9.5% (+129,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

• Actual: 1,376,000

Month-on-Month Change: -5.43% (-79,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -5.75%  (-84,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JANUARY 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Housing Starts During DECEMBER 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for December 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,322,000

• Actual: 1,404,000

Month-on-Month Change: +6.2% (+82,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.27% (-110,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

• Actual: 1,448,000

Month-on-Month Change: +4.32% (+60,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -2.16%  (-32,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

Housing Starts During October 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for October 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,306,000

• Actual: 1,246,000

Month-on-Month Change: -4.59% (-60,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.84% (-106,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

• Actual: 1,412,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.21% (-3,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.12%  (-16,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Housing Starts During August 2025

 The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for August 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,429,000

• Actual: 1,307,000

Month-on-Month Change: -8.54% (-122,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -6.04% (-84,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,362,000

• Actual: 1,312,000

Month-on-Month Change: -3.67% (-50,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -11.11%  (-164,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Housing Starts During July 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for July 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,358,000

• Actual: 1,428,000

Month-on-Month Change: +5.15% (+70,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +12.86% (+163,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,393,000

• Actual: 1,354,000

Month-on-Month Change: -2.8% (-39,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -5.71%  (-82,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JULY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Housing Starts During May 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,392,000

• Actual: 1,256,000

Month-on-Month Change: -9.77% (-136,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -4.56% (-60,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,407,000

• Actual: 1,393,000

Month-on-Month Change: -2.04% (-29,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.00%  (-14,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MAY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Housing Starts During March 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for March 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading: 1,501,000

• Actual: 1,324,000

Month-on-Month Change: -11.38% (-170,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +1.92% (+25,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading: 1,456,000

• Actual: 1,482,000

Month-on-Month Change: +1.58% (+23,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.2%  (-3,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Housing Starts During February 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for February 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,501,000

Month-on-Month Change: +11.19% (+151,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -2.91% (-45,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,450,000

• Actual: 1,456,000

Month-on-Month Change: -1.15.% (-17,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -6.85%  (-107,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

New Home Sales During January 2025

The January, 2025 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (revised): 734,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 657,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from 1 Month Previous: -77,000 units (-10.49%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -7,000 units (-1.05%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During January, 2025: $446,300
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During January, 2025: $510,000

------------------------------------------------------
Inventory: 495,000 (+34,000 units / 7.38% Year-on-Year)

• 9.0 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home
JANUARY 2025 Update

================================

• CHART: Cost of A Newly Built Home.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for The Monthly Existing Home Sales Report.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.03

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.03

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
January 2025 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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