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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Leading Economic Index for July 2020

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2020 this morning:

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Index for July 2020: 104.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +2.0%

  • Actual: +1.359% (+1.4 points)

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  • LEI for June 2020: 103.0

  • LEI for May 2020: 100.0
  • LEI for April 2020: 97.0
     
  • LEI for March 2020: 103.5

  • LEI for February 2020: 111.8
     
  • LEI for January 2020: 112.0

  • LEI for December 2019: 111.4

  • LEI for November 2019: 111.6

  • LEI for October 2019: 111.4

  • LEI for September 2019: 111.6

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index - July 2020 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index - July 2020 Update

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CHART: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth July 2020 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth
July 2020 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI increased for the third consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace than the sharp increases in the previous two months,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Despite the recent gains in the LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam. The LEI suggests that the pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final months of 2020.'..."

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