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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, December 18, 2020

Leading Economic Index for November 2020

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for November 2020 this morning:

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Index for November 2020: 109.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.5%

  • Actual: +0.646% (+0.7 point)

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  • LEI for October 2020: 108.4

  • LEI for September 2020: 107.5

  • LEI for August 2020: 106.7
     
  • LEI for July 2020: 105.0

  • LEI for June 2020: 102.9
     
  • LEI for May 2020: 99.8

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index - November 2020 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index
November 2020 Update

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CHART: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth November 2020 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth
November 2020 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued rising in November, but its pace of improvement has been decelerating in recent months, suggesting a significant moderation in growth as the US economy heads into 2021,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Initial claims for unemployment insurance, new orders for manufacturing, residential construction permits, and stock prices made the largest positive contributions to the LEI. However, falling average working hours in manufacturing and consumers’ worsening outlook underscore the downside risks to growth from a second wave of COVID-19 and high unemployment.'..."

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