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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Leading Economic Index for July 2021

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2021 this morning:

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Index for July 2021: 116.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +1.1%
  • Actual: +0.87% (+1.0 point)

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  • LEI for June 2021: 115.0

  • LEI for May 2021: 114.4

  • LEI for April 2021: 113.0

  • LEI for March 2021: 111.5

  • LEI for February 2021: 110.1
     
  • LEI for January 2021: 110.1

  • LEI for December 2020: 109.6

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2021 Update

Chart: Leading Economic Index
July 2021 Update

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth - July 2021 Update


Chart: Leading Economic Index - Six-Month Growth
July 2021 Update
 
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From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered another large gain in July, with all components contributing positively,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'The Leading Index’s overall upward trend, which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020, is consistent with strong economic growth in the second half of the year. While the Delta variant and/or rising inflation fears could create headwinds for the US economy in the near term, we expect real GDP growth for 2021 to reach 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still robust 4.0 percent growth rate for 2022.'..."

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