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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, November 19, 2021

Leading Economic Index for October 2021

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for October 2021 this morning:

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Index for October 2021: 118.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.9%
  • Actual: +0.853% (+1.0 point)

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  • LEI for September 2021: 117.3

  • LEI for August 2021: 117.2

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index October 2021 Update

CHART: Leading Economic Index
October 2021 Update

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CHART: Leading Economic Index Six-Month Growth October 2021 Update

CHART: Leading Economic Index
Six-Month Growth
October 2021 Update
 
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From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this year,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Gains were widespread among the leading indicators, with only the average workweek and consumers’ outlook making negative contributions.

'However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022. Despite these headwinds, The Conference Board forecasts growth to remain strong in the fourth quarter at around 5.0 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still historically robust rate of 2.6 percent in Q1 2022.'
..."

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