Economy: Employment Situation Report for October 2021

The Employment Situation Report for October 2021 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +500,000

Previous Month (Revised): 312,000
Actual: +531,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.6%
Previous Month: 4.8%
12 Months Previous: 6.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.3%
Previous Month: 8.5%
12 Months Previous: 12.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.357% (+$0.11)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.878% (+$1.44)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.068% (+$0.73)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.576% (+$47.01)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.6%
Previous Month: 61.6%
12 Months Previous: 61.6%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.8 hours
Actual: 34.7 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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From Today's Report:

"...In October, 11.6 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 13.2 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the pandemic.

In October, 3.8 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic -- that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 5.0 million in September. Among those who reported in October that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 13.3 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the prior month.

Among those not in the labor force in October, 1.3 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 1.6 million in September. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October. Thus far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 582,000. Nonfarm employment has increased by 18.2 million since a recent trough in April 2020 but is down by 4.2 million, or 2.8 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Job growth was widespread in October, with notable job gains occurring in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 11 cents [+0.357%] to $30.96, following large increases in the prior 6 months. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.9 percent. In October, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents to $26.26..."

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CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment
October 2021 Update

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CHART: U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate
October 2021 Update

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* = The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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