.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Monday, October 25, 2021

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September 2021:

==================

Predicted: FLAT
  • Actual (CFNAI): -0.13

==================

  • Previous Month (revised): +0.05
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.25
==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles September 2021 Update

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
September 2021 Update

==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index September 2021 Update

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
September 2021 Update

 ====================


From Today's Report

"...Index Suggests Slower Economic Growth In September

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.13 in September from +0.05 in August. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made a negative contribution in September, and one category deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.25 in September from +0.38 in August..
."

==================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================



==================


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

>  SITEMAP  <

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home


bing

bing

www.FedPrimeRate.com
Entire Website © 2024 FedPrimeRate.comSM


This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve
in any way. Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners
of this website make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this
website. Consult a financial professional before making important decisions related to any
investment or loan product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans,
education loans, first or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.