Economy: Leading Economic Index for February 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2024 this morning:

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Index for February 2024: 102.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.4%

Actual: +0.097% (+0.1 point M/M)
Change from 12 Months Ago: -6.2% (-6.8 points)

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LEI for January 2024: 102.7
LEI for December 2023: 103.1
LEI for November 2023: 103.3
LEI for October 2023: 103.8
LEI for September 2023: 104.7
LEI for August 2023: 105.5
LEI for July 2023: 105.9
LEI for June 2023: 106.1
LEI for May 2023: 106.7
LEI for April 2023: 107.4
LEI for March 2023: 108.3
LEI for February 2023: 109.6
LEI for January 2023: 110.2
LEI for December 2022: 110.7
LEI for November 2022: 111.5
LEI for October 2022: 112.5
LEI for September 2022: 113.5
LEI for August 2022: 116.4
LEI for July 2022: 116.4
LEI for June 2022: 117.1
LEI for May 2022: 117.9
LEI for April 2022: 118.7
LEI for March 2022: 119.3
LEI for February 2022: 119.4
LEI for January 2022: 118.5

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
Building permits for new private housing
The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Average weekly manufacturing hours
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
February 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1% in February 2024 to 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4% decline in January. Over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.6% -- a smaller decrease than the 3.8% decline over the previous six months.

'The U.S. LEI rose in February 2024 for the first time since February 2022,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™, and residential construction drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years.

However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM® Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative. Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward.

The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in February 2024 to 112.3 (2016 = 100), after a 0.1% increase in January. The CEI rose 1.1% over the six-month period ending February 2024, up from 0.8% over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index were positive last month, with personal income less transfer payments and payroll employment having the strongest contributions to the Index..."

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