PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.9%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.9%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - August 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Employment Situation Report for August 2023

Employment Situation Report for August 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000

Previous Month (Revised): 157,000
One Year Previous: 352,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.1%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.237% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.29% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.53% (+$6.13)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.98% (+$44.57)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
August 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.6%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.6%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: FLAT

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.3%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - July 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Employment Situation Report for July 2023

Employment Situation Report for July 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000

Previous Month (Revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 568,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.7%
Previous Month: 6.9%
12 Months Previous: 6.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.417% (+$0.14)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.361% (+$1.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.125% (+$1.44)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.46% (+$38.66)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.1%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
July 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.1%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Employment Situation Report for June 2023

Employment Situation Report for June 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +209,000

Previous Month (Revised): 306,000
One Year Previous: 370,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.36% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.35% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.65% (+$7.47)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$41.72)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: U-3 (Official) Unemployment Rate
June 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.8%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023:

==================

Predicted: -0.20

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.07

==================

• Previous Month (revised): -0.37

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.22
  

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

 CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Inflation Cycles
April 2023 Update

====================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: FLAT
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June 2022

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June 2022:

==================

Predicted: -0.20

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.19

==================

• Previous Month (revised): -0.19

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.04
  

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
June 2022 Update

  ==================

 

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
June 2022 Update

====================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

 

 

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2022

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2022:

==================

Predicted: +0.42

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.47

==================

• Previous Month (revised): +0.36

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.48
  

==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
April 2022 Update

  ==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
April 2022 Update

 ====================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March 2022

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March 2022:

==================

Predicted: +0.42

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.44

==================

• Previous Month (revised): +0.54

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.57
  

==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
March 2022 Update

  ==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
March 2022 Update

 ====================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December 2021:

==================

Predicted: +0.10

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.15

==================

• Previous Month (revised): +0.44

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.33
  

==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
December 2021 Update

==================

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
December 2021 Update

 ====================

From Today's Report

"...Index Suggests Economic Growth Declined In December

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November..."

==================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September 2021:

==================

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.13

==================

• Previous Month (revised): +0.05

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.25
  

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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
September 2021 Update

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CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
September 2021 Update

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From Today's Report

"...Index Suggests Slower Economic Growth In September

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.13 in September from +0.05 in August. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made a negative contribution in September, and one category deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.25 in September from +0.38 in August..."

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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2021:

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Predicted: +0.25

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.53

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• Previous Month (revised): -0.01

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.23
  

==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
July 2021 Update

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CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
July 2021 Update

 ====================

From Today's Report

"...Index Points To A Pickup In Economic Growth In July

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.53 in July from –0.01 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and three categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.23 in July from +0.01 in June..."

==================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

 

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