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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Saturday, February 03, 2024

Employment Situation Report for January 2024

Employment Situation Report for January 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +353,000
Previous Month (Revised): 333,000
One Year Previous: 482,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.4%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.2%
Previous Month: 7.1%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.553% (+$0.19)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.3%
Actual: +4.48% (+$1.48)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.03% (-$0.39)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +2.97% (+$33.94)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.4%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.1 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Unemployment Rate - January 2024 UPDATE

CHART: Unemployment Rate
 January 2024 UPDATE

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


===================  

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Friday, January 26, 2024

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.7%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (unrevised):
  • Actual: +0.3%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: -0.1%
Actual: +0.2% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, December 22, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3% (revised):
  • Actual: +0.4%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.2%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update
CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, December 01, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%
  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4% (revised):
  • Actual: +0.2%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: FLAT 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.


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Saturday, November 04, 2023

Employment Situation Report for October 2023

Employment Situation Report for October 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +150,000
Previous Month (Revised): 297,000
One Year Previous: 324,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.2%
Previous Month: 7.0%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.206% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.103% (+$1.34)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.085% (-$0.99)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.2% (+$36.16)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.8%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.3 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Employment - October 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
October 2023 UPDATE
   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


=================== 

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Saturday, October 28, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.7%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2
  • Actual: +0.3%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.4%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.7%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - September 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - September 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Employment Situation Report for September 2023

Employment Situation Report for September 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +336,000
Previous Month (Revised): 227,000
One Year Previous: 350,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.0%
Previous Month: 7.1%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.207% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.15% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.207% (+$2.41)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.55% (+$39.93)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.8%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Employment - September 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
September 2023 UPDATE

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


=================== 

 

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Friday, September 29, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.9%
  • Actual: +0.4%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2
  • Actual: +0.4%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.9%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - August 2023 Update

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - August 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, September 01, 2023

Employment Situation Report for August 2023

Employment Situation Report for August 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000
Previous Month (Revised): 157,000
One Year Previous: 352,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.1%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.237% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.29% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.53% (+$6.13)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.98% (+$44.57)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Employment - August 2023 Update
CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
August 2023 Update


   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


=================== 

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Thursday, August 31, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.6%
  • Actual: +0.8%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.6%
=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3
  • Actual: +0.2%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: FLAT
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.3%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 ===================== 


CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - July 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - July 2023 Update

   =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, August 04, 2023

Employment Situation Report for July 2023

Employment Situation Report for July 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000
Previous Month (Revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 568,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.7%
Previous Month: 6.9%
12 Months Previous: 6.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.417% (+$0.14)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.361% (+$1.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.125% (+$1.44)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.46% (+$38.66)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.1%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Employment - July 2023 Update
CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
July 2023 Update


   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


=================== 

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Friday, July 28, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%
  • Actual: +0.5%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%
=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4
  • Actual: +0.3%
=============

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +4.1%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


=====================

 =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, July 07, 2023

Employment Situation Report for June 2023

Employment Situation Report for June 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +209,000
Previous Month (Revised): 306,000
One Year Previous: 370,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.36% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.35% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.65% (+$7.47)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$41.72)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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CHART: U-3 (Official) Unemployment Rate - June 2023 Update
CHART: U-3 (Official) Unemployment Rate
June 2023 Update


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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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Friday, June 30, 2023

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.1%
  • Actual: +0.1%
  • Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT
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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4
  • Actual: +0.4%
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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.8%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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