Leading Economic Index for February 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2022 this morning:

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Index for February 2022: 119.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.335% (+0.4 point)

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• LEI for January 2022: 119.5
  
  
• LEI for December 2021: 120.1
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
February 2022 Update

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 CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth
February 2022 Update

 

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in February to 119.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decrease in January and a 0.8 percent increase in December.

'The US LEI rose slightly in February, partially reversing January’s decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'However, the latest results do not reflect the full impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could lower the trajectory for the US LEI and signal slower-than-anticipated economic growth in the first half of the year. The global economic impact of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices -- coupled with rising interest rates, existing labor shortages, and high inflation -- all pose headwinds to US economic growth. While the Omicron wave and its economic impact waned in recent months, the potential for new COVID-19 variants remains. Amid these risks, The Conference Board revised its growth projection for the US economy down to 3.0 percent year-over-year GDP growth in 2022 -- still well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  
  

• Click Here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.
  
  

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