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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for June 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for June 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0
  • Actual: 50.2
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  • Change from Previous Month: -14.041% (-8.2 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -41.29% (-35.3 points)

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  • Final ICS Reading for May 2022: 58.4

  • Final ICS Reading for June 2021: 85.5

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From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value [50.2], comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession. All components of the sentiment index fell this month, with the steepest decline in the year-ahead outlook in business conditions, down 24% from May. Consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation worsened about 20%. Forty-six percent of consumers attributed their negative views to inflation, up from 38% in May; this share has only been exceeded once since 1981, during the Great Recession.

Overall, gas prices weighed heavily on consumers, which was no surprise given the 65 cent increase in national gas prices from last month (AAA). Half of all consumers spontaneously mentioned gas during their interviews, compared with 30% in May and only 13% a year ago. Consumers expect gas prices to continue to rise a median of 25 cents over the next year, more than double the May reading and the second highest since 2015.

In addition, a majority of consumers spontaneously mentioned supply shortages for the ninth consecutive month.
.."

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CHART: Consumer Sentiment Expected Change in Real Income During the Next Year June 2022 PRELIMINARY UPDATE
CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Expected Change in Real Income
During the Next Year
June 2022 PRELIMINARY UPDATE
 
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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