Leading Economic Index for December 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2024:
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Index for December 2024: 101.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.45% (-1.5 points)

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• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.0
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.

Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December.

Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead.

Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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