Leading Economic Index for July 2025
Index for July 2025: 98.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.1%
- Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
- Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.61% (-3.7 points)
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- LEI for June 2025: 98.8
- LEI for May 2025: 99.1
- LEI for April 2025: 99.1
- LEI for March 2025: 100.4
- LEI for February 2025: 101.2
- LEI for January 2025: 101.4
- LEI for December 2024: 101.6
- LEI for November 2024: 101.7
- LEI for October 2024: 101.4
- LEI for September 2024: 101.7
- LEI for August 2024: 102.1
- LEI for July 2024: 102.4
The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
- The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
- Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
- Building permits for new private housing
- The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
- Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Average weekly manufacturing hours
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
- Leading Credit Index™
"...'The leading economic index for the US decreased just slightly in July,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Pessimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index. Meanwhile, stock prices remained a key positive support of the LEI.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were much lower in July than in June and were the second most positive component of the LEI, after contributing negatively to the index over the previous three months.
While the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains negative, it improved slightly in July -- but not enough to avoid triggering the recession signal again. Despite that, The Conference Board does not currently project a recession, though we do expect the economy to weaken in H2 2025, as the negative impacts from tariffs become more visible. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year in 2025, before slowing in 2026 to 1.3%.'..."
Labels: consumer, consumers, disinflation, Economy, FedPrimeRate, FedPrimeRate.com, inflation, Leading_Economic_Index, leading_economic_indicators, Recession_Risk, Recession_Signals, Recession_Warning
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