Leading Economic Index for January 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2025:
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Index for January 2025: 101.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.07% (-1.1 points)

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• LEI for December 2024: 101.8
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which -- alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing -- drove the monthly decline.

However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022.

Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead.

We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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