Economy: ISM Manufacturing Index for OCTOBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for October, 2025:

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Predicted: 49.0%

Actual: 48.7% (-0.4 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 49.1%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

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The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

'Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariffs landscape.'
(Chemical Products)

'Decrease in domestic demand for finished products has resulted in slower manufacturing and an increase of raw material in inventory.'
(Petroleum & Coal Products)

'In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.'
(Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

'Sales continue to underperform in our automotive OEM and industrial divisions. Our aerospace and automotive aftermarket are the only areas performing slightly above budget. This is the third month of lower-than-expected sales, and the remainder of the year outlook is not looking better. Sales are expected to be slightly less than in 2024.'
(Fabricated Metal Products)

'Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.'
(Machinery)

'The commercial vehicle (CV) market remains depressed as customers continue to delay vehicle purchases. Uncertainty in price and transportation demand remains the center of attention. U.S. trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines. The CV industry is now bracing for the next round of tariffs focused on commercials vehicles, scheduled to begin on November 1.'
(Transportation Equipment)

'The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.'
(Machinery)

'The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.'
(Computer & Electronic Products)

'Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.'
(Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

'Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.'
(Chemical Products)

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