Employment Situation Report for JUNE 2026

The Employment Situation Report for June, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +57,000

Previous Month (revised): +129,000

One-Year Previous: -20,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 8.1%
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.35% (+$0.13)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.52% (+$1.28)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.35% (+$4.46)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.82% (+$47.54)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5%
Previous Month: 61.8%
12-Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

JUNE 2006 thru JUNE 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 4, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 4, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 215,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 217,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Manufacturing Index for JUNE 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for June, 2026:

=========

• Actual: 53.3% (-0.7 point month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 54.0%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the sixth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

• “The conflict in Iran has impacted pricing in every category of raw materials. Especially, items that have a heavy concentration of oil in the components like our adhesives.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “Continued pressure from conflict in Middle East is resulting in a more conservative approach to capital expenditures. We are seeing an increase in consumables and services purchasing from sectors like chemical analysis, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and environmental and pharmaceutical testing.”
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

• “General purchasing operations are being shaped by (1) moderating but still elevated inflation, (2) higher interest rates and (3) continued policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and global trade. While overall economic growth remains resilient, it is slowing as consumer spending weakens under pressure from higher costs for energy and essential goods, reducing demand visibility and increasing cost sensitivity for buyers. Meanwhile, supply chains have stabilized compared to prior years but remain structurally complex, with trade policy volatility, geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes now ongoing cost drivers rather than temporary disruptions. Our organization continues balancing cost control with resilience, shifting sourcing strategies, tightening inventories and prioritizing supplier diversification and risk management.”
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

• “Retail electronics sales seem to have stabilized to some extent. The pause in tariff changes has been welcomed the last two months, but it’s only a matter of time before more confusion is introduced.”
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components] 

• “Input costs remain elevated across key categories, driven largely by Middle East conflict impacts and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Supplier lead times have stretched, which is influencing our inventory strategy and sourcing decisions. We are managing exposure through diversified supplier bases and contract structures that balance cost certainty with operational flexibility.”
   [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products] 

• “Conditions are optimistic but not yet booming for our company, even though many others, it seems, are experiencing growth. Machinery in support of defense and semiconductor manufacturing is very strong, a bright spot for our team. Industrial and medical clients are slow to purchase, focusing more on refurbished and upgraded units versus new ones.” [Machinery] 

• “Core business remains solid in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Cautiously optimistic that a deal will be reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; concerned about ongoing ripple effects even when the strait reopens but situation is highly concerning if the strait remains closed. AI industry continues to have huge capacity consumption for critical electronics. Monitoring impact of U.S. defense industry needs on supplier capacity.”
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 

• “No major changes from last month. With the potential ending of the Iran invasion, management is expecting us to go back to February pricing structures and plans since the increase in oil prices was driven by the war and not regular market influences.”
   [Petroleum & Coal Products] 

• “Requests from suppliers in Europe and India for ‘energy surcharges’ have stopped this past month. We’re seeing continued capacity growth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), including Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea. Most suppliers are building for the longer term as geopolitical protection from all sides.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “The new Section 232 tariffs continue to destroy our profitability and demand as we have to raise prices to deal with this gigantic tax. Add the ‘incentives’ for our company to pivot to purchasing non-U.S. sourced material, and one realizes the total ineptitude of this tariff policy.”
   [Transportation Equipment]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

JUNE 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
JUNE 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 27, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 27, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 215,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 216,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 222,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for MAY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.7%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.3%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.7%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.7% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: +0.3%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12-months previous: +4.1%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12-months previous: +3.4%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.3%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending

MAY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 13, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 13, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 224,000

• Actual: 226,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 230,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 223,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Leading Economic Index for MAY 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May, 2026:

==============

Index for May, 2026: 99.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: +0.1% (+0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -0.2% (-0.2 point)

============== 

• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1 
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag.

Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead.

Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costs -- especially gas and energy -- are rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment, and shopping.

The good news is that businesses are spending heavily on AI, data centers, and new technology, helping to keep the economy growing, while  consumers pull back spending.

The overall job market is expected to stay fairly healthy in 2026, but economic growth will be weaker than in recent years.

The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for MAY 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for MAY, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.4% (+$3,023,000,000)

• Actual: +0.88% (+$6,669,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During May, 2026: $763,705,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +6.88% (+$49,137,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

February 2006 Thru May 2026
MAY 2026 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Import and Export Price Indexes for MAY 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May, 2026:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading*: +2.0%
Actual: +1.9%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +6.7%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +4.2%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading*: +3.5%
Actual: +1.3%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +11.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading* = +9.1%

===============
 

* = Revised data.  

 

The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MAY, 2026 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MAY, 2026 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During May 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for May, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.9%
Actual: +0.1% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.7%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.7%
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.4%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.2% 

• Y/Y : +1.3%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
MAY 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 6, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 6, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 229,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 225,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 219,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MAY 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MAY, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +1.1%

• Actual: +1.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +6.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +6.0%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.6% 

• Actual: +0.8%

Change from 12 months previous:  +5.1% 
(prior - unrevised = +4.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +10.4% (prior = +7.4%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.9% (prior = +5.5%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
MAY 2026 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for MAY 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During May, 2026: 335.123

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.63 (+2.103 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +4.25% (+13.658 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +3.81%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.31% (+1.043 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.85% (+9.337 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.75%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May, 2025: 321.465

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
MAY 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <