Employment Situation Report for MAY 2026

The Employment Situation Report for May, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +172,000

Previous Month (revised): +179,000

One-Year Previous: +13,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.3%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.1%
Previous Month: 8.2%
12-Months Previous: 7.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.32 (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.45% (+$1.25)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.32% (+$4.12)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$46.50)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%
Previous Month: 61.8%
12-Months Previous: 62.4%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

MAY 2006 thru MAY 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 30, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 30, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 225,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 212,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 214,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for MAY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for May, 2026:

==========

Predicted: 54.0%

• Actual: 54.5%  (+0.9 point month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month (revised): 53.6%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in May, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent, the 23rd consecutive month in expansion territory..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "We are seeing the dual effects of the administration’s tariff policy dynamics and the invasion of Iran affect our pricing. Suppliers across numerous industries are trying to pass price increases for fuel surcharges and increased input costs for resin-based products and the like. This is the definition of inflationary pressure starting to affect us. We expect significant cost increases to impact us by late second quarter (Q2) and definitely in Q3.”
   [Accommodation & Food Services] 

• “Starting to see increased supply constraints and associated price increases, especially for construction materials and computers like laptops and tablets.”
   [Educational Services] 

• “Patient volumes and activity remain high, employment is steady and supply chains are operating effectively. There are some product lines on allocation as a direct result of the invasion of Iran; however, the current state is manageable. Another concerning factor on the horizon: the current drop-out rate on Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance plans after the federal subsidy was eliminated as of January 1. Year-to-date dropout rates are approaching 14 percent, indicating we may be seeing a potential increase in uninsured patients in the foreseeable future. The short-term forecast is cautious optimism.”
   [Health Care & Social Assistance] 

• “The groundwood paper market remains tight. The announced sale of NORPAC to International Paper has caused some tightness. We figure intellectual property issues will eventually take NORPAC out of the book market. Freight remains expensive, with gas prices and fuel surcharges starting to come through.”
   [Information] 

• “Effective commodity prices (oil) have increased about 20 percent so far in 2026.”
   [Mining] 

• “Due to rising fuel costs, a major distributor has decided to hold freight with resellers until a new contract is negotiated that addresses these increased expenses. Unfortunately, this means there will be delays that will impact our internal projects.”
   [Public Administration] 

• “Supply chain reliability for aviation parts and consumables has generally improved, but volatility in jet fuel prices -- driven by geopolitical and logistics disruptions -- continues to complicate forecasting and inventory planning. Wage inflation and a tight labor market for skilled personnel are increasing supplier service costs, and growing sustainability expectations are raising demand (and cost) for sustainable aviation fuel, with availability still uneven by region. Overall, conditions are more stable than during the peak of supply chain disruptions, but elevated fuel, labor and sustainability-related costs remain key factors shaping our purchasing strategy and industry outlook.”
   [Transportation & Warehousing] 

• “Inflationary pressures continue to impact pricing in certain categories. General concern over supply continuity due to unprecedented demand continues in the utility space.”
   [Utilities] 

• “Capital expenditure energy projects continue to be delayed or revamped based on macroeconomic factors. Data center power generation projects are driving demand and reducing available inventory across the piping market.”
   [Wholesale Trade]
  
  ===========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index
(NMI®) MAY 2026 Update

==========

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for APRIL 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for April, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,100,000

• Actual:   7,618,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 6,887,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: +10.61% (+731,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,098,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: +7.33% (+520,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,116,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.1% (-275,000)

-----------

QUITS: 2,977,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.31% (-167,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,692,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -6.93% (-126,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 4,978,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.54% (-292,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
APRIL 2011 thru APRIL 2026

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  

=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for MAY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for May, 2026:

=========

Predicted: 54.0%

• Actual: 54.0% (+1.3 points month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 52.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the fifth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

• “Continued dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) volatility, increased gas prices and tariffs are causing long lead constraints and price hikes that customers are not willing to bear. Panic is starting within our industry.”
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components] 

• “Impact of Iran invasion starting to directly and negatively impact cost of supply chain. Oil and related commodities are escalating in price.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “The Middle East conflict is triggering shipment delays and uncertainties. Elevated gas prices and inflation will surely impact our purchases. However, over the last quarter, we’ve seen increased demand that was unexpected.”
   [Machinery] 

• “As with all companies, we have felt the effects of fuel-related inflation and general market uncertainty due to overall economic variability and geopolitical events that have impacted such markets as construction, automotive and agriculture, as well as the general industrial sector.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “Continuing trends of 15-percent sales increase in April, cost increases on a majority of raw materials, and fuel charges on many inbound and outbound deliveries. We remain cautiously optimistic that if global economic factors stabilize and the Iran invasion ends, we can continue with increased sales and maintain acceptable margins.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “Cost of diesel is having huge impacts on our profitability. Confusion abounds around tariff refunds. We purchase many imported goods but in most cases are not the importer of record, so it is currently unclear to what we may be entitled.”
   [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products] 

• “Prices continue to rise for many products -- some due to increase in data center creation for electronic components, others as a result of the Iran invasion and reductions in availability of oil/petroleum.”
   [Computer + Electronic Products] 

• “Supply constraints continue to propagate and are a key headwind to supporting increased aerospace and defense demand. Semiconductors, critical minerals and certain types of raw materials are illustrative examples of sales plans at risk. Corporate risk mitigation actions are underway to secure supply in the midst of constraints.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “The current atmosphere is one of extreme uncertainty and concern for the future in terms of both price stability and longer-term supply continuity related to the  Iran invasion and Strait of Hormuz closure. We have a lot of negotiations in process related to requested price increases, some related to oil prices and some still fallout from the 2025 tariff/geopolitical climate.”
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 

• “Business appears to be weakening -- uncertainty surrounding the Iran invasion, rising energy prices and customers unwilling to commit to expenditures beyond a very short term.”
   [Fabricated Metal Products]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

MAY 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
MAY 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 23, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 23, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 212,000

• Actual: 215,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 210,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 209,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

===================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for APRIL 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +1.0%

• Actual: +0.5%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.1%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): -0.1% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: -0.5%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12-months previous: +3.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.5%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12-months previous: +3.3%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.2%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
APRIL 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for APRIL 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April, 2026:

==============

Index for April, 2026: 97.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: +0.1% (+0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.72% (-1.7 points)

============== 

• LEI for March, 2026: 97.3
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 97.9
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 97.6
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 97.6   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 97.9  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April, 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March, 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February, 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January, 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December, 2024: 101.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI increased slightly in April, driven mainly by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits only for two and more units,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead.

Strong investment in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy production likely will have a positive impact on growth and sustain business spending, but may only partially offset weakness on the consumer side.

Higher gasoline and energy costs -- paired with weak hiring -- will likely erode household purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income consumers. The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% y/y GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 16, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 16, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 209,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 212,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 202,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for APRIL 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April, 2026:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.9%
Actual: +1.9%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +4.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +1.5%
Actual: +3.3%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.8%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +5.6%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

APRIL 2026 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

APRIL 2026 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During APRIL 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for April, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): -0.3%
Actual: +0.7% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.4%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +0.7%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual:  +0.6% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.3%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +0.5%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 75.7%
Actual:  76.1% 

• Y/Y : +1.3%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
APRIL 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for APRIL 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for APRIL, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.63% (+$12,092,000,000)

• Actual: +0.49% (+$3,715,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During April, 2026: $757,085,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +4.87% (+$35,182,000,000)

=================

 

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

February 2006 Thru March 2026
APRIL 2026 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

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