New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 6, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 6, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 236,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 192,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for SEPTEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2025:

==============

Index for September 2025: 98.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.34% (-3.4 points)

============== 

• LEI for August 2025: 98.6 
  
  
• LEI for July 2025: 98.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7 

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led the overall contraction in the Index. Subindexes that contributed negatively to the LEI were consumer expectations and ISM® New Orders Index, followed by manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods & materials, initial claims for unemployment Insurance (inverted), and the yield curve.

However, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers' new orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft did contribute positively to the Index. The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown.

Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for SEPTEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.3%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +2.9%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +3.1%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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U.S. Factory Shipments During SEPTEMBER 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for September, 2025:

========

Predicted: +1.4%

• Actual: +0.192% (+1,172,000,000)

========

• September, 2025 New Orders: $612,636,000,000.
  
  
• August, 2025 New Orders: $611,464,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$32,570,000,000 | +5.38% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for November, 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During November 2025: 71,321

• Previous Month: 153,074

  > Change from previous month: -53.41% (-81,753 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 57,727

 > Change from one-year previous: +23.55% (+13,594 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...WHY ARE COMPANIES CUTTING IN 2025?

In November, Restructuring led all reasons with 20,217 for a total of 128,255 in 2025. Store, unit, or department Closing accounted for 17,140 in November, and 178,531 for the year.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited for 6,280 cuts in November. So far this year, AI is responsible for 54,694 layoff plans. Since 2023, when this reason was first cited, AI has led to 71,683 job cut announcements.

Market and Economic Conditions were cited for 15,755 job cuts in November. So far this year, 245,086 job cuts have been attributed to market and/or economic conditions. Tariffs have been cited for 7,908 job cuts this year with 2,061 occurring in November.

Though the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has not been the cause of job cut announcements in two months, “DOGE Impact” remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 293,753 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors.

An additional 20,976 cuts have been attributed to DOGE Downstream Impact, which reflects the loss of federal funding to private and non-profit entities..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

 Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 29, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 29, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 191,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 214,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for SEPTEMBER 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.1%
Actual: FLAT

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.3%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = -0.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: FLAT

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.8%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +3.2%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for NOVEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for November, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 48.0%

• Actual: 48.2% (-0.5 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the ninth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.'
   (Transportation Equipment) 

•     'Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.'
   (Chemical Products) 

•     'No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.'
   (Petroleum + Coal Products) 

•     'Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing) 

•     'The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products) 

•     'Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.'
   (Computer + Electronic Products) 

•     'The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.'
   (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products) 

•     'Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. -- before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.'
   (Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components) 

•     'Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.'
   (Wood Products)
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
November 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
November 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2025:

===============================
Previous Month (unrevised): -0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +2.1%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.5% (prior = +2.9%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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U.S. Factory Shipments During August 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for August, 2025:

========

Predicted: +1.4%

• Actual: +1.4% (+8,444,000,000)

========

• August, 2025 New Orders: $612,030,000,000.
  
  
• July, 2025 New Orders: $603,586,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$12,385,000,000 | +2.04% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
AUGUST 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for OCTOBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for October, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (-0.4 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 49.1%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariffs landscape.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

•     'Decrease in domestic demand for finished products has resulted in slower manufacturing and an increase of raw material in inventory.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

•     'In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  

•     'Sales continue to underperform in our automotive OEM and industrial divisions. Our aerospace and automotive aftermarket are the only areas performing slightly above budget. This is the third month of lower-than-expected sales, and the remainder of the year outlook is not looking better. Sales are expected to be slightly less than in 2024.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

•     'Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The commercial vehicle (CV) market remains depressed as customers continue to delay vehicle purchases. Uncertainty in price and transportation demand remains the center of attention. U.S. trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines. The CV industry is now bracing for the next round of tariffs focused on commercials vehicles, scheduled to begin on November 1.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

•     'The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products) 

•     'Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) 

•     'Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.'
   (Chemical Products)

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
October 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
October 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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ISM Manufacturing Index for SEPTEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for September, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 49.1% (+0.4 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to be severely depressed. Profits are down and extreme taxes (tariffs) are being shouldered by all companies in our space. We have increased price pressures both to our inputs and customer outputs as companies are starting to pass on tariffs via surcharges, raising prices up to 20 percent. The addition of the derivative steel and aluminum tariffs in the middle of the month -- with no announcement -- was devastating. Interest-rate lowering or the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ will not impact our business, as all capital projects are on hold until there is some level of certainty and customers start to place orders for new equipment again. We believe we are in a stagflation period where prices are up but orders are down due to tariff policy, and again, customers are not willing to pay the higher prices, so they are just not buying. Continuing to find ways to reduce overhead, which means letting go of experienced workers.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

 

•     'The tariffs are still causing issues with imported goods into the U.S. In addition to the cost concerns, product is being held up at borders due to documentation issues. The inflation issues continue; low volumes are a constant concern. The European region is not improving as we had expected, causing further concern for long-term business viability.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

 

•     'Ongoing macroeconomic conditions highlighted by interest-rate management and tariffs continue to impact customer purchasing decisions, resulting in subdued production rates and growing cost concerns on direct material and operations.'
   (Machinery)
  

 

•     'Lead times have slightly normalized, but tariffs continue to drive additional spend.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

 

•     'Customer orders are depressed for heavy machinery because tariffs are so impactful to high-end capital equipment. Revenue expectations are flat for the rest of 2025, with no outlook to improve in 2026.'
   (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  

 

•     'Current business conditions remain volatile, with geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions and shifting trade policies driving uncertainty in agricultural commodities. Oils remain sensitive to biofuel demand and global production. Inflation and evolving consumer trends add further complexity. To manage this, we are emphasizing supplier diversification, long-term contracts and formula-based pricing to balance cost stability with flexibility.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  

 

•     'The semiconductor industry is being impacted by high tariff prices on parts from Korea, China and Europe. Our industry is at a low point right now as we race to get new nanotechnology in the U.S.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products)
  

 

•     'Business is slowing down. Order books are softening as customers push orders out. Seems to be stemming from concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy.'
   (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs still affecting vast amounts of increases in hardware, Al (artificial intelligence) and stainless steel. MRO (maintenance, repair and operating) products have continually increased, and the slowdown in agriculture has had stark impacts on bottom lines for raw materials.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products) 

•     'Steel tariffs are killing us.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
September 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
September 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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