Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JUNE 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for June, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,400,000

• Actual:   7,359,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,537,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -2.36% (-178,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,204,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: +2.15% (+155,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,348,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: +0.39% (+21,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,232,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -0.68% (-22,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,766,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -4.18% (-77,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,351,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -1.49% (-81,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People

per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JUNE 2011 thru JUNE 2026

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  

=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for JULY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for July 2026:

=========

• Actual: 55.6% (+2.3 points month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 53.3%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

• “We are seeing a very opportunistic and reactive marketplace. If shortage items become available, we opportunistically buy. Some customers are reducing inventory; others are pulling forward demand. As many customers that are slowing down, an equal number are growing. It looks like a lot of shuffling and shifting market share.”
   [Chemical Products] 

• “We continue to operate in a favorable demand environment driven by growth in the semiconductor, AI, advanced packaging, and high-performance computing markets. Recent company reports indicate strong sales growth and continued investment in manufacturing capacity, technology and customer-support capabilities. This scenario supports a positive business outlook and creates opportunities to leverage increased purchasing scale across the enterprise.”
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

• “Now that it seems the buildout of AI infrastructure globally is nearing real activation, products going into data centers are at full procurement and manufacturing ramp-up. Thus, demand for our semiconductor end products and connectivity (power, networking and photonics) is booming. Similarly, defense is at an all-time high, with most of our product orders going to these two industries. Order volumes for medical, industrial and consumer products are markedly lower.”
   [Machinery]

• “Aerospace and defense demand continues to be strong and growing, based on business backlogs. Competing for scare supply -- electronics, certain critical minerals and other categories — is challenging on-time fulfillment for our supply chains. This is expected to get worse with co-dependent sectors also remaining strong and restocking challenges for automotive electronics.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “Continued tariffs on products utilized in our product lines are being monitored by the business, which is working to mitigate or limit tariff risk. Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, pertaining to commodity and energy markets remains a concern. There has been some increased cost and transit time for rerouted shipments due to conflicts in the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

• “Business is still solid; we will increase revenue by 3 percent to 5 percent. We are considering foreign steel purchases for early next year because domestic steel mills are getting greedy.”
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

• “No normalcy in sight in the world of metals. It makes me yearn for the coronavirus pandemic chaos, which was more manageable than whatever this is that we are in.  At least business is better; however, the components of good business are not. Sharp pricing downturns in aluminum will make things more interesting, as supply levels will prevent those decreases from taking hold across the board. Getting customers to understand that is not always easy.”
   [Primary Metals] 

• “The pricing volatility and lead-time extensions in this market are arguably worse than the pandemic era. During COVID-19, we saw a surge of price hikes and inventory buy-ups, which caused constraints that eventually leveled out. We are seeing nothing but consistent upward trends for both pricing and lead times that show no signs of slowing down. Specifically, 5-percent to 25-percent price increases for printed circuit board assembly components and 15-percent to 45-percent increases for bare boards are negatively impacting customer demand outlook into next year. This isn’t sustainable.”
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components] 

• “Our customers in Asia continue to procure elsewhere to avoid paying a tariff While the Iran [invasion] was paused, it was terrific to see fuel prices (and delivery costs) falling steadily. Now that skirmishes have resumed, we expect fuel to rise again.”
   [Paper Products] 

• “Definitely a downturn within several of our business units, mainly the consumer products division. High freight costs, both for truck and ocean, and longer lead times are concerning. Pricing was moving downward until the Iran [invasion] started again.”
   [Chemical Products]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

JULY 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
JULY 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 25, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 25, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 199,000

• Actual: 197,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 188,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 202,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JUNE 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.9%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.4%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.2% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: +0.3%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

PCE Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: -0.1% 

• Change from 12-months previous: +3.7%
  (prior - unrevised = +4.1%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12-months previous: +3.3%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending

JUNE 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Durable Goods Orders During JUNE 2026

The Durable Goods Orders report for June, 2026 was released by the Commerce Department:

================

• New Orders: $360,373,000,000
  
  (+$29,511,000,000 [+8.92%]) Year-on-Year

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders

Month-on-Month Change
JUNE 2026 UPDATE
(from Seasonally Adjusted Data)

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the y-o-y change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers (NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 18, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 18, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 187,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 209,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 207,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for JUNE 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June, 2026:

==============

Index for June, 2026: 99.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.3% (+0.3 point)

============== 

• LEI for May, 2026: 99.3
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories...

...'Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year-on-year GDP growth for 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During June 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for June, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.1%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.7%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.1%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.1% 

• Y/Y : +1.3%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for JUNE 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for JUNE, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.02% (+$7,779,000,000)

• Actual: +0.22% (+$1,677,000,000)

================= 

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During June, 2026: $768,553,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +6.72% (+$48,389,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru June 2026
JUNE 2026 UPDATE
=================

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 11, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 11, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 208,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 216,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 214,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JUNE 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During June, 2026: 333.952

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: -0.35% (-1.171 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.53% (+11.391 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +4.25%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.01% (+0.036 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.59% (+8.518 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.85%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June, 2025: 322.561

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
JUNE 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Employment Situation Report for JUNE 2026

The Employment Situation Report for June, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +57,000

Previous Month (revised): +129,000

One-Year Previous: -20,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 8.1%
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.35% (+$0.13)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.52% (+$1.28)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.35% (+$4.46)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.82% (+$47.54)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5%
Previous Month: 61.8%
12-Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

JUNE 2006 thru JUNE 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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ISM Non-Manufacturing (SERVICES) Index for JUNE 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing / Services Index (NMI®) for June, 2026:

==========

• Actual: 54.0%  (-0.5 point month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month: 54.5%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From Today' Report:

 

 "... Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory..."

 
===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging. The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.”
   [Accommodation & Food Services] 

• “Extreme drought in Virginia is creating financial problems for farmers and the agricultural industry. Dramatically reduced spring crops harvest has created significant cost increases in feed expense. The barley grain crop was nearly totally lost due to the early hot weather and spring freeze. High fertilizer cost increases due to the Iran invasion and increased freight cost has driven cost for crops above breakeven levels on many farms. Many dairy farmers are struggling with crop shortages, high input cost and below milk price breakeven. The financial stress from higher cost due to the Iran invasion and drought-related forage losses has resulted in decreased spending in the agricultural sector.”
   [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting] 

• “In general, our company (commercial construction) is doing well. Pipeline is healthy for current and future work. Material pricing is higher and lead times on certain components in support of data center piping is elongating.”
   [Construction] 

• “In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions, including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.”
   [Finance & Insurance] 

• “Despite economic headwinds like persistent inflation, patient volumes and overall business activity remain strong reflected mainly by outstanding revenue performance. Supply chains remain resilient as well; back orders are at a historical low, and few if any critical products are experiencing difficulties. Labor is steady, as we continue to add full-time workers while the forecast remains positive. Given the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, we are beginning to hear that cost of goods increases are on the horizon but have yet to materialize. Cost increases are in focus for the next quarter.”
   [Health Care & Social Assistance] 

• “From a strategic supply chain perspective, we are seeing increased complexity in managing total landed cost due to tariffs, import/export constraints and duty recovery mechanisms, requiring more proactive coordination across sourcing, logistics and compliance teams. Recent discussions internally also highlight the impact of tariff programs and duty drawback evaluations on purchasing strategies.”
   [Mining] 

• “Demand remains strong in infrastructure, environmental, and resilience projects, while procurement faces persistent labor inflation, supplier capacity constraints, and regulatory complexity—particularly in California and other high-cost markets. Labor-driven categories remain elevated despite easing goods inflation. The impact is higher rates, longer lead times, and increased importance of capacity assurance vs. lowest-cost sourcing.”
   [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services] 

• “Business has been very strong during what is usually a less active time of the year. Pricing is stable, and employment just where we want it to be. Supply chain strong with no challenges.”
   [Retail Trade] 

• “The utility industry continues to experience extended lead times, supply-chain constraints, material shortages, and pricing volatility. As a result, suppliers are often limiting quotation validity periods, with many RFQs carrying expiration dates as short as 24 hours. These conditions require timely evaluation and procurement decisions to mitigate the risk of price changes and availability issues.”
   [Utilities] 

• “We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.”
   [Wholesale Trade]
  

========== 

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  

==========

CHART: ISM Services Index
(NMI®) JUNE 2026 Update

==========

  

CHART: ISM Services Index
12-Month History
JUNE 2026 Update

 ==========

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