U.S. Factory Shipments During August 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for August, 2025:

========

Predicted: +1.4%

• Actual: +1.4% (+8,444,000,000)

========

• August, 2025 New Orders: $612,030,000,000.
  
  
• July, 2025 New Orders: $603,586,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$12,385,000,000 | +2.04% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
AUGUST 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for OCTOBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for October, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (-0.4 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 49.1%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariffs landscape.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

•     'Decrease in domestic demand for finished products has resulted in slower manufacturing and an increase of raw material in inventory.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

•     'In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  

•     'Sales continue to underperform in our automotive OEM and industrial divisions. Our aerospace and automotive aftermarket are the only areas performing slightly above budget. This is the third month of lower-than-expected sales, and the remainder of the year outlook is not looking better. Sales are expected to be slightly less than in 2024.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

•     'Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The commercial vehicle (CV) market remains depressed as customers continue to delay vehicle purchases. Uncertainty in price and transportation demand remains the center of attention. U.S. trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines. The CV industry is now bracing for the next round of tariffs focused on commercials vehicles, scheduled to begin on November 1.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

•     'The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products) 

•     'Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) 

•     'Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.'
   (Chemical Products)

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
October 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
October 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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ISM Manufacturing Index for SEPTEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for September, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 49.1% (+0.4 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to be severely depressed. Profits are down and extreme taxes (tariffs) are being shouldered by all companies in our space. We have increased price pressures both to our inputs and customer outputs as companies are starting to pass on tariffs via surcharges, raising prices up to 20 percent. The addition of the derivative steel and aluminum tariffs in the middle of the month -- with no announcement -- was devastating. Interest-rate lowering or the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ will not impact our business, as all capital projects are on hold until there is some level of certainty and customers start to place orders for new equipment again. We believe we are in a stagflation period where prices are up but orders are down due to tariff policy, and again, customers are not willing to pay the higher prices, so they are just not buying. Continuing to find ways to reduce overhead, which means letting go of experienced workers.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

 

•     'The tariffs are still causing issues with imported goods into the U.S. In addition to the cost concerns, product is being held up at borders due to documentation issues. The inflation issues continue; low volumes are a constant concern. The European region is not improving as we had expected, causing further concern for long-term business viability.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

 

•     'Ongoing macroeconomic conditions highlighted by interest-rate management and tariffs continue to impact customer purchasing decisions, resulting in subdued production rates and growing cost concerns on direct material and operations.'
   (Machinery)
  

 

•     'Lead times have slightly normalized, but tariffs continue to drive additional spend.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

 

•     'Customer orders are depressed for heavy machinery because tariffs are so impactful to high-end capital equipment. Revenue expectations are flat for the rest of 2025, with no outlook to improve in 2026.'
   (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  

 

•     'Current business conditions remain volatile, with geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions and shifting trade policies driving uncertainty in agricultural commodities. Oils remain sensitive to biofuel demand and global production. Inflation and evolving consumer trends add further complexity. To manage this, we are emphasizing supplier diversification, long-term contracts and formula-based pricing to balance cost stability with flexibility.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  

 

•     'The semiconductor industry is being impacted by high tariff prices on parts from Korea, China and Europe. Our industry is at a low point right now as we race to get new nanotechnology in the U.S.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products)
  

 

•     'Business is slowing down. Order books are softening as customers push orders out. Seems to be stemming from concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy.'
   (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs still affecting vast amounts of increases in hardware, Al (artificial intelligence) and stainless steel. MRO (maintenance, repair and operating) products have continually increased, and the slowdown in agriculture has had stark impacts on bottom lines for raw materials.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products) 

•     'Steel tariffs are killing us.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
September 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
September 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2025:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.7

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.3%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.6% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.1% (prior = +1.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.9% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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ISM Manufacturing Index for August 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (+0.7 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.0%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August for the sixth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     ' A 50-percent tariff on imports from Brazil, combined with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s elimination of the specialty sugar quota, means certified organic cane sugar -- and everything made with it -- is about to get significantly more expensive.'
    (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)
  

 

•     ' Orders across most product lines have decreased. Financial expectations for the rest of 2025 have been reduced. Too much uncertainty for us and our customers regarding tariffs and the U.S./global economy.'
    (Chemical Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs continue to be unstable, with suppliers adding surcharges ranging between 2.6% to 50%.'
    (Petroleum + Coal Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs continue to wreak havoc on planning/scheduling activities. New product development costs continue to increase as unexpected tariff increases are announced -- for example, 50% duties on imports from India, and increases to all countries up from original 10%. Our materials/supplies are now rising in price, so our sell pricing is again being reviewed to ensure we keep a sustainable margin.
  
  Plans to bring production back into U.S. are impacted by higher material costs, making it more difficult to justify the return.'
    (Computer & Electronic Products)
  

 

•     ' The construction industry, especially home building, is still at a lower level. With new construction at a low level, our new sales are impacted. We are mainly now relying on replacement business. Cost of goods sold is higher due to tariff-impacted goods.'
    (Machinery)
  

 

•     "Domestic sales remain flat but are down four percent from plan by unit volume [tariff pricing].
  
  Export demand is falling as customers do not accept tariff impacts, which likely will require some production transfers out of the U.S. Supplier deliveries remain consistent with ocean shipping costs dropping significantly.
  
  Tariff costs have biggest financial impact but also costs of copper and of steel products.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

 

•     ' The trucking industry continues to contract. Our backlog continues to shrink as customers continue to hold off on buying new equipment. This current environment is much worse than the Great Recession of 2008-09. There is absolutely no activity in the transportation equipment industry.
  
  This is 100% attributable to current tariff policy and the uncertainty it has created. We are also in stagflation: Prices are up due to material tariffs, but volume is way off.'
    (Transportation Equipment)
  

 

•     ' Very tentative domestic market, with home building and remodeling not very active at all. Inflation, among other factors, is starting to impact consumer buying power, leading to negative signs for our order files. International markets are upended due to the unpredictability of on-again, off-again tariff activity.'
    (Wood Products)
  

 

•     ' We’ve implemented our second price increase. "Made in the USA" has become even more difficult due to tariffs on many components. Total price increases so far: 24%; that will only offset tariffs.
  
  No influence on margin percentage, which will actually drop. In two rounds of layoffs, we have let go of about 15 percent of our U.S. workforce. These are high-paying and high-skilled roles: engineers, marketing, design teams, finance, IT and operations.
  
  The administration wants manufacturing jobs in the U.S., but we are losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, capital expenditures spending and hiring are frozen. It’s survival.'
    (Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components)
  

 

•     ' There is still uncertainty in the construction market. Large expansions or investment are hampered by the unknown of costing and the economy. The markets we operate in can be strong short term, but there is an underlying feeling that has you questioning for how long.'
    (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
August 2025 Update

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: FLAT

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: -0.9%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.7%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MAY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MAY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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