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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Monday, August 03, 2026

ISM Manufacturing Index for JULY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for July 2026:

=========

  • Actual: 55.6% (+2.3 points month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 53.3%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S.
manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the 
manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

  • “We are seeing a very opportunistic and reactive marketplace. If shortage items become available, we opportunistically buy. Some customers are reducing inventory; others are pulling forward demand. As many customers that are slowing down, an equal number are growing. It looks like a lot of shuffling and shifting market share.”
     [Chemical Products]
     
  • “We continue to operate in a favorable demand environment driven by growth in the semiconductor, AI, advanced packaging, and high-performance computing markets. Recent company reports indicate strong sales growth and continued investment in manufacturing capacity, technology and customer-support capabilities. This scenario supports a positive business outlook and creates opportunities to leverage increased purchasing scale across the enterprise.”
     [Computer & Electronic Products]
     
  • “Now that it seems the buildout of AI infrastructure globally is nearing real activation, products going into data centers are at full procurement and manufacturing ramp-up. Thus, demand for our semiconductor end products and connectivity (power, networking and photonics) is booming. Similarly, defense is at an all-time high, with most of our product orders going to these two industries. Order volumes for medical, industrial and consumer products are markedly lower.”
     [Machinery]
  • “Aerospace and defense demand continues to be strong and growing, based on business backlogs. Competing for scare supply -- electronics, certain critical minerals and other categories — is challenging on-time fulfillment for our supply chains. This is expected to get worse with co-dependent sectors also remaining strong and restocking challenges for automotive electronics.”
     [Transportation Equipment]
     
  • “Continued tariffs on products utilized in our product lines are being monitored by the business, which is working to mitigate or limit tariff risk. Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, pertaining to commodity and energy markets remains a concern. There has been some increased cost and transit time for rerouted shipments due to conflicts in the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal.”
     [Transportation Equipment]
     
  • “Business is still solid; we will increase revenue by 3 percent to 5 percent. We are considering foreign steel purchases for early next year because domestic steel mills are getting greedy.”
     [Fabricated Metal Products]
     
  • “No normalcy in sight in the world of metals. It makes me yearn for the coronavirus pandemic chaos, which was more manageable than whatever this is that we are in.  At least business is better; however, the components of good business are not. Sharp pricing downturns in aluminum will make things more interesting, as supply levels will prevent those decreases from taking hold across the board. Getting customers to understand that is not always easy.”
     [Primary Metals]
     
  • “The pricing volatility and lead-time extensions in this market are arguably worse than the pandemic era. During COVID-19, we saw a surge of price hikes and inventory buy-ups, which caused constraints that eventually leveled out. We are seeing nothing but consistent upward trends for both pricing and lead times that show no signs of slowing down. Specifically, 5-percent to 25-percent price increases for printed circuit board assembly components and 15-percent to 45-percent increases for bare boards are negatively impacting customer demand outlook into next year. This isn’t sustainable.”
     [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
     
  • “Our customers in Asia continue to procure elsewhere to avoid paying a tariff While the Iran [invasion] was paused, it was terrific to see fuel prices (and delivery costs) falling steadily. Now that skirmishes have resumed, we expect fuel to rise again.”
     [Paper Products]
     
  • “Definitely a downturn within several of our business units, mainly the consumer products division. High freight costs, both for truck and ocean, and longer lead times are concerning. Pricing was moving downward until the Iran [invasion] started again.
     [Chemical Products]

==========


CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index - JULY 2026 Update
CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
JULY 2026 Update
=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index 12-Month History - JULY 2026 Update
DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
JULY 2026 Update
=========
 

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Thursday, July 30, 2026

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): FIRST / ADVANCE Estimate for Q2, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FIRST estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +2.1%

  • Actual: +1.5%

============


GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 
CHART: GDP - Percent Change from Previous Quarter Q2, 2026 - FIRST ESTIMATE
CHART: GDP - Percent Change from Previous Quarter
Q2, 2026 - FIRST ESTIMATE
============ 
 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 25, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 25, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 199,000

  • Actual: 197,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 188,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 202,750

====================

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Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 24, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 24, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -10,900,000 Barrels (-1.51%)

Δ from 1-Year Previous: -117,200,000 Barrels (-14.13%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 712,200,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Monday, July 27, 2026

Durable Goods Orders During JUNE 2026

The Durable Goods Orders report for June, 2026 was released by the Commerce Department:

================

  • New Orders: $360,373,000,000

    (+$29,511,000,000 [+8.92%]) Year-on-Year

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month Change JUNE 2026 UPDATE (from Seasonally Adjusted Data)
CHART: Durable Goods Orders
Month-on-Month Change
JUNE 2026 UPDATE
(from Seasonally Adjusted Data)

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the y-o-y change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers (NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

================

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Thursday, July 23, 2026

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 18, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 18, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

  • Actual: 187,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 209,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 207,500

====================

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Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 17, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 17, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,100,000 Barrels (-0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,400,000 Barrels (-11.98%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 723,100,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Monday, July 20, 2026

Housing Starts During JUNE 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for June, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,199,000

  • Actual: 1,427,000

Month-on-Month Change: +19.02% (+228,000 New Units)

  • Year-on-Year Change: +3.48% (+48,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,410,000

  • Actual: 1,367,000

Month-on-Month Change: -3.05% (-43,000 New Permits)

  • Year-on-Year Change: -2.29%  (-32,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


=================

CHART: Housing Starts + Building Permits + Completions - JUNE, 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JUNE, 2026 UPDATE

=================


=================
 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD / FINAL Estimate for Q1, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its THIRD / FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +0.5%

  • Actual: +2.1%

============


The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP Q1, 2026 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE
CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP
Q1, 2026 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE
============ 
 

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Leading Economic Index for JUNE 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June, 2026:

==============

Index for June, 2026: 99.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

  • Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)

    • Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.3% (+0.3 point)

============== 

  • LEI for May, 2026: 99.3
     
  • LEI for April, 2026: 99.2

  • LEI for March, 2026: 99.0

  • LEI for February2026: 99.6

  • LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
        
  • LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   

  • LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  

  • LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
     
  • LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
     
  • LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 

  • LEI for July, 2025: 98.8

  • LEI for June, 2025: 98.8

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™
==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signal - JUNE 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2026 UPDATE
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories...

...'Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year-on-year GDP growth for 2026.'.
.."

==============
 

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Friday, July 17, 2026

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During June 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for June, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% Month-on-Month (M/M)

  • Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.1%

    --> Y/Y Previous: +1.7%

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Manufacturing:

Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

  • Y/Y : +1.1%

    --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%

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Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.1% 

  • Y/Y+1.3%

    --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%
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===============

CHART: Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization - JUNE 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

 

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Thursday, July 16, 2026

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for JUNE 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for JUNE, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.02% (+$7,779,000,000)

  • Actual: +0.22% (+$1,677,000,000)
================= 

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Est. Retail Sales During June, 2026: $768,553,000,000
  • Year-On-Year Change: +6.72% (+$48,389,000,000)

=================
 
CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly January 2006 Thru June 2026 - JUNE 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2006 Thru June 2026
JUNE 2026 UPDATE

=================
 
=================   

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 11, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 11, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

  • Actual: 208,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 216,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 214,250

====================

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Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending July 10, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 10, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -4,600,000 Barrels (-0.63%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -98,700,000 Barrels (-11.97%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 726,200,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

  • Actual: -0.3-%

Change from 12-months previous:  +5.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +6.5%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (un
revised): +0.8% 

  • Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12-months previous:  +5.1% 
(prior - unrevised = +5.1%)

===============================

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

  • PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +7.9% (prior = +10.4%)
  • PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.6% (prior = +4.9%)


  CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - JUNE 2026 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2026 Update

==============

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Tuesday, July 14, 2026

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JUNE 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for June, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 97.0

  • Actual: 97.4

----------------

  • Change from Previous Month: +2.2% (+2.1 point.)
  • Change from A Year Ago: -1.22% (-1.2 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index JUNE 2026 Update
CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
JUNE 2026 Update 

=========

  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========
 
From the Report:
 
"...CREDIT MARKETS

In June, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions fell 2 points to a net -5% (seasonally adjusted). A net 3% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from May. 

In June, a net 5% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 1 point from May.

The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.4% in June, down 0.4 points from May and the lowest level since October 2022. Twenty-two percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 5 points from May.

June’s reading is 12 points below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION


The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 2 points from May to a net 38% (seasonally adjusted). This is the fourth consecutive month that actual price increases have risen, marking the highest level since January 2023. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 47% reported higher average prices (up 1 point), and 7% reported lower average selling prices (unchanged). Whileactual price increases rose in June, the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future declined. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 32% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 2points from May’s highest reading since July 2022. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem rose for the fourth consecutive month in June. Twenty-one percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 3 points from May and marking the highest reading since October 2024. Inflation ranks as the top problem..."
=========

  • Previous Month's SBOI: 95.3
  • SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 98.6
=========

=========

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