ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for March 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for March, 2026:

==========

Predicted: 55.0%

• Actual: 54.0%  (-2.1 points month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month (revised): 56.1%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in March, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, the 21st consecutive month in expansion territory..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "Tariff rollbacks are resulting in favorable price adjustments, but the news of new implementation is driving continued uncertainty. Snowstorms last month disrupted demand and supplier operations, mostly around the availability of labor. Forecasted seasonal growth is starting to materialize due to daylight savings time and higher temperatures.”
   [Accommodation & Food Services] 

• “Transportation disruptions in the Middle East are inhibiting both incoming and outgoing cargoes from the region. While force majeure has been received from several Middle Eastern suppliers, business operations are generally at normal levels and no interruptions, except shipping.”
   [Construction] 

• “We are still in cost cutting and operational streamlining mode as technology continues to advance. We have seen more concessions regarding passing through tariff surcharges. We continue to closely monitor the political situation in the Middle East and how ramifications could impact our supply chain and overall costs.”
   [Finance & Insurance] 

• “As we close out the first quarter, demand for AI computer infrastructure remains incredibly resilient. Customers have opened their 2026 capital budgets, leading to a strong refresh in new order intake. Operationally, our focus has shifted toward efficiency and margin protection.”
   [Information] 

• “Political uncertainty with Iran conflict has resulted in less international business. Domestic business remains consistent with January and February levels.”
   [Mining]

• “We’re seeing some expansion across the services economy with stronger business activity and new orders. Clients remain active on regulatory, tax planning, and risk management initiatives, though persistent pricing pressures and evolving economic conditions continue to shape project prioritization and budgeting.”
   [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services] 

• “The war in Iran has added an additional layer of uncertainty on top of an already shaky macroeconomic climate. A spike in inflation due to higher oil prices will reduce purchasing power, affecting every industry.”
   [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing] 

• “Recent increases in fuel prices are having a substantial impact on the airline industry, resulting in significantly higher operational costs compared to pricing from just one month ago.”
   [Transportation & Warehousing] 

• “Continued volatility in copper, aluminum and steel markets — driven by supply chain constraints and strong infrastructure demand — has increased costs and lead times for electric utility projects. These conditions are influencing purchasing strategies and capital planning across the industry.”
   [Utilities] 

• “The U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran have created significant uncertainty for our Omani frankincense imports. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and rising war-risk surcharges are pressuring regional logistics costs, even for air freight. Combined with the Supreme Court’s emergency tariffs ruling — which replaced our 10-percent tariff with a 15-percent Section 122 tariff — landed costs have increased materially. We are monitoring regional stability closely and maintaining communication with Omani suppliers.”
   [Wholesale Trade]
  

===========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index
(NMI®) MARCH 2026 Update

==========

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for FEBRUARY 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for February, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 6,800,000

• Actual:   6,882,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,240,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -4.94% (-358,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,242,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -4.97% (-360,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 4,849,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -7.39% (-387,000)

-----------

QUITS: 2,974,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.68% (-179,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,721,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -7.82% (-146,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 4,971,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.94% (-314,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

FEBRUARY 2011 thru FEBRUARY 2026

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

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Employment Situation Report for MARCH 2026

The Employment Situation Report for March, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +178,000

Previous Month (revised): -133,000

One-Year Previous: +67,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.4%
12-Months Previous: 4.2%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12-Months Previous: 7.9%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.24% (+$0.09)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.52% (+$1.27)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.05% (-$0.65)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.52% (+$43.44)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.9%
Previous Month: 62.0%
12-Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

MARCH 2006 thru MARCH 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for FEBRUARY 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for February, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -0.104% (-$762,000,000)

• Actual: +0.6% (+$4,411,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During February, 2026: $738,366,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +3.71% (+$26,444,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

February 2006 Thru February 2026
FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 28, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 28, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 202,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 211,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 207,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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ISM Manufacturing Index for MARCH 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for March, 2026:

=========

Predicted: 52.1%

• Actual: 52.7% (+0.3 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 52.4%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     “This is expected to be a transition year for the U.S. trucking market, with gradual stabilization driven by capacity tightening and replacement demand instead of growth. Demand should stay constrained by weak carrier profitability and high equipment costs but improve modestly late in the year.”
   [Transportation Equipment]
  

•     “Changes in the tariff structure are bringing cautious opportunities to offset significant costs for the balance of 2026. The actions in Iran, however, add a new wrinkle to energy costs throughout the world, including India. We continue to try and plan for the unpredictable and unexpected.”
   [Transportation Equipment] 

•     “We’re seeing steady increases in activity, but geopolitical issues and the Iran war are already waning sentiment.”
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

•     “Customer orders have increased considerably as the construction market remains strong, resulting in higher production volume and increased forecasts to suppliers.”
   [Machinery] 

•     “Current Middle East unrest is already starting to impact business operations by increasing lead times, costs, container delays and the like.”
   [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products] 

•     “Lots of relief from Supreme Court striking down (emergency) tariffs, particularly with organic cane sugar from Brazil.”
   [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products] 

•     “Geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran are contributing to rising manufacturing supply costs, and ongoing tariff uncertainty is negatively impacting purchasing strategies and cost forecasts.”
   [Chemical Products] 

•     “Ongoing geopolitical instability has emerged as a persistent factor influencing global trade dynamics. We anticipate strategic realignment of supply chains as organizations respond to energy market volatility and shifting trade policies. In light of these macroeconomic headwinds, we -- like most organizations -- are maintaining a cautious posture regarding investment commitments while continuing to monitor market conditions closely. Our purchasing strategy is being recalibrated to address supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by energy market volatility and evolving trade protectionism.”
   [Chemical Products] 

•     “Metal commodity prices continue to put pressure on mechanical commodities. Memory price escalation is causing large cost increases that cannot be mitigated in other areas of the product cost.”
   [Computer + Electronic Products] 

•     “The Middle East war has created domestic and global turmoil for the olefins and polyolefins business. Feedstocks and finished product pricing are accelerating dramatically as Middle Eastern and Asian producers suffer from shipping blockages. Global customers for packaging resins are scrambling to cover needs from North America and South America in the face of supply chain complications.”
   [Plastics + Rubber Products]

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

March 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
March 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending March 27, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 27, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +5,100,000 Barrels (+0.59%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +40,500,000 Barrels (+4.84%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 876,700,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 21, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 21, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 210,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 205,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 210,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending March 20, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 20, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +6,900,000 Barrels (+0.8%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +41,800,000 Barrels (+5.04%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 871,600,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending March 13, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 13, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +6,200,000 Barrels (+0.72%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +31,900,000 Barrels (+3.83%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 864,700,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for FEBRUARY 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for FEBRUARY, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (unrevised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.5% (prior = N/A)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.8% (prior = N/A)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
FEBRUARY 2026 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During FEBRUARY 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for February, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.7%
Actual: +0.2% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.4%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +2.3%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.8%
Actual:  +0.2% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.3%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +2.4%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 76.3%
Actual:  76.3% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.4%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JANUARY 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 6,800,000

• Actual:   6,946,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 6,550,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: +6.05% (+396,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,431,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -6.53% (-485,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,294,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: +1.07% (+56,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,137,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.06% (-66,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,631,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -6.16% (-107,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,105,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.59% (-136,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

JANUARY 2011 thru JANUARY 2026

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): SECOND Estimate for Q4, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its SECOND estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +4.4%

• Actual: +0.7%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change

Q4, 2025 - SECOND ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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Durable Goods Orders During January 2026

The Durable Goods Orders report for January, 2026 was released by the Commerce Department:

================

• New Orders: $294,344,000,000
  
  (+$24,319,000,000 [+9.01%]) Year-on-Year

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders
Month-on-Month Change
JANUARY 2026 UPDATE
(from Seasonally Adjusted Data)

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the y-o-y change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers (NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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