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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, July 22, 2022

Leading Economic Index for June 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2022 this morning:

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Index for June 2022: 117.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.5%
  • Actual: -0.763% (-0.9 point)

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  • LEI for May 2022: 118.0

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

  • LEI for December 2021: 119.3

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Year-on-Year Change in the Leading Economic Index + Real GDP - June 2022 UPDATE

CHART: Year-on-Year Change in the Leading Economic Index
+ Real GDP
June 2022 UPDATE


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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term as recession risks grow,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June. The coincident economic index which rose in June suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.'

'Amid high
inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022. A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our forecast of 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7% year-over-year (from 2.3 percent), while 2023 growth was downgraded to 0.5% YOY (from 1.8%).'..."

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