Leading Economic Index for January 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2024 this morning:

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Index for January 2024: 102.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.39% (-0.4 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -6.8% (-7.5 points)

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• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.7
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
January 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4% in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% decline in December 2023. The LEI contracted by 3.0% over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous six months.

'The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024.) As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016 = 100), after a 0.2% increase in December 2023. The CEI expanded by 1.0% in the six-month period ending January 2024, down from a 0.8% growth rate over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with payroll employment and personal income less transfer payments having the strongest contributions, followed by a much smaller positive contribution from manufacturing and trade sales.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. rose by 0.4% in January 2024 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.4% in December 2023. The LAG is up by 0.9% over the six-month period from July to January 2024, following a decline of 0.1% over the previous six months.

The LEI still declined in January 2024 but at the slowest pace since March 2023..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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