Leading Economic Index for MARCH 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March, 2026:

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Index for March, 2026: 97.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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• Actual: -0.61% (-0.6 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.09% (-3.1 points)

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• LEI for February, 2026: 97.9
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 97.6
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 97.6   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 97.8  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April, 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March, 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February, 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January, 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December, 2024: 101.6
  
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MARCH 2026 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers’ purchasing power.

The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity.

The Conference Board revised its US GDP growth forecast to well below 2%, down to 1.6% Y/Y for 2026.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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