Consumer Sentiment: Final Estimate for January 2016

The Consumer Sentiment (final estimate) reading for January 2016 was released today:

Predicted: 93.0
Actual: 92.0

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The previous Consumer Sentiment reading was 93.3.

Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q4, 2015

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "advance" report for the fourth quarter of 2015 was released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +0.9%
Actual: +0.7%

"...During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015), real GDP increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014..."

The highlighted figure represents the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity in the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimate is based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision.

• On February 26, 2016, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" GDP report for Q4 2015, which will contain more accurate data.
  
  
• On March 25, 2016, a "final" GDP report will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data for Q4 2015.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 23, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 23, 2016:

Predicted: 285,000
Actual: 278,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 294,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Durable Goods Orders Report for December 2015

The Durable Goods Orders report for December 2015 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -5.1%

================

Change from 12 months ago: -0.6%

================

The  highlighted figure represents the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 22, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 22, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +8,400,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +88,200,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 494,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.

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New Home Sales for December 2015

The December 2015 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 500,000
Actual New Home Sales: 544,000

Change from One Month Ago: +10.8%
Change from One Year Ago: +9.9%

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Median Price for a New Home during December: $288,900

Average Price for a New Home during December: $346,400

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers during the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

"...An estimated 501,000 new homes were sold in 2015. This is 14.5% (±4.5%) above the 2014 figure of 437,000..."

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January 2016

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January 2016) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 96.0
Actual: 98.1

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 96.3 (revised.)

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Leading Economic Indicators for December 2015

The Conference Board® report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for December 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.1%

Actual: -0.2%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Money Supply (M2)
   
   
2. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
3. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
   
   
6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
7. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
8. The Index of Consumer Expectations
   
   
9. Vendor performance
   
   
10. Building permits for new private housing

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Existing Home Sales for December 2015

The Existing Home Sales report for December 2015 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 5,200,000
Actual: 5,460,000

Change from One Month Previous: +14.7%
Change from One Year Ago: +7.7%

The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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Median Price for A Used Home In December 2015: $224,100
Change from One Year Ago: +7.6%

Average Price for A Used Home In December 2015: $266,800
Change from One Year Ago: +4.7%

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Click here for historical prices and a chart.

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25^TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.

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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for January 2016

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its diffuse index of current manufacturing conditions for this month (January 2016):

Predicted: -4.0
Actual: -3.5

The "actual" figure above is an index of current manufacturing conditions within the Federal Reserve's Third District, which includes eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware and the southern half of New Jersey. Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Philadelphia Fed report.

• Last month, the actual figure was -10.2 (revised.)
  

For a national perspective of manufacturing conditions, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 16, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 16, 2016:

Predicted: 275,000
Actual: 293,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 283,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2015

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2015:

=========================================

Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

(Change from 12 months ago: +0.7%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months ago: +2.1%)

=========================================

The above figures (highlighted) represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Housing Starts During December 2015

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for December 2015:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,200,000
Actual: 1,149,000

Change From Previous Month: -2.5%
Change From One Year Ago: +6.4%

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,217,000
Actual: 1,232,000

Change From Previous Month: -3.9%
Change From One Year Ago: +14.4%

----------------------------------------------------


The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for December 2015

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2015:

Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

Last Month (revised): +0.4%

Estimated Retail Sales for December: $448,100,000,000

Change from 12 Months Ago: +2.2%

================= 

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Industrial Production for December 2015

The Industrial Production numbers for December 2015 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.4%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 76.9%
Actual: 76.5% 

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2015

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.2%

Change from 12 months ago: -1.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months ago: +0.3%

=============

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2015

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on US Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2015:

Import Prices
Predicted: -1.4%
Actual: -1.2%

Last Month (revised): -0.5

Change From 12 Months Ago: -8.2%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -1.1%

Last Month (revised): -0.7

Change From 12 Months Ago: -6.5%

===============
 
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 9, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 9, 2016:

Predicted: 275,000
Actual: 284,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (unrevised): 277,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Employment Situation Report for December 2015

The Employment Situation Report for December 2015 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +200,000
Actual: +292,000

Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 5.0%
Actual: 5.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.0%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hrs
Actual: 34.5 hrs

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +298,000 to +307,000, and the change for November was revised from +211,000 to +252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 50,000 higher than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 284,000 per month... [Establishment Survey Data]"

"...The number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged in December, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the third month in a row. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 800,000, respectively...The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.1 million in December and accounted for 26.3 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has shown little movement since June, but was down by 687,000 over the year...Among the marginally attached, there were 663,000 discouraged workers in December, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities... [Household Survey Data]"

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 2, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 2, 2016:

Predicted: 272,000
Actual: 277,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (unrevised): 287,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Factory Orders Report for November 2015

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for November 2015:

Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%

The highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report. 

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ISM Manufacturing Index for December 2015

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for December 2015:

Predicted: 49.2%
Actual: 48.2%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the factory sector contracted.

Last month, the PMI was 48.6%.

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

    "Low oil prices are negatively impacting oil and gas exploration activities. Low oil prices are generally positive for the petrochemical industry."
(Petroleum and Coal Products)


    "Month-over-month sales were down, profitability up."
(Chemical Products)


    "December revenue is flat compared to last month."
(Computer and Electronic Products)


    "Still very slow due to oil prices."
(Fabricated Metal Products)

    "Deflation in many commodities is helping with product savings. Sales are strong with a backlog."
(Transportation Equipment)

"Targeting reduced inventories for raw materials by year-end."
(Textile Mills)

"Sales have dropped and continue to be soft. This is resulting in [a] reduction in workforce and furloughs."
(Apparel, Leather and Allied Products)

    "Downturn in China and European markets are negatively affecting our business."
(Machinery)


    "Medical device business continues to be strong, both in the U.S. and abroad."
(Miscellaneous Manufacturing)


    "Customers are tightening their inventories for year-end, impacting our sales and shipments."
(Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)


    "Business is going well. Low fuel prices keep full size SUV and truck sales at high volumes."
(Plastics and Rubber Products)

Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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