New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 16, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 16, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 235,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 224,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,250

====================

From Today's Report:

 "... The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 9 was 1,972,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021 when it was 2,041,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 11,000 from 1,953,000 to 1,942,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,954,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,750 from 1,950,750 to 1,948,000..."

 ====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================   

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 15, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 15, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -5,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -6,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Housing Starts During July 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for July 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,358,000

• Actual: 1,428,000

Month-on-Month Change: +5.15% (+70,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +12.86% (+163,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,393,000

• Actual: 1,354,000

Month-on-Month Change: -2.8% (-39,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -5.71%  (-82,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JULY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.9%

• Actual: +0.514% (+$3,712,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During July 2025: $726,283,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +3.917% (+$27,374,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru May 2025
JULY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JULY 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JULY 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (unrevised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.9%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.3%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): FLAT 

• Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.9% (prior = +1.7%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.0% (prior = +2.7%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JULY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 9, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 9, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 224,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 227,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 221,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================   

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 8, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 8, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -4,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 426,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025:

=========================================

CPI During July 2025: 323.048

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.15% (+0.487 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.7% (+8.508 points)

[prior = +2.67%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.19% (+0.616 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.06% (+9.766 points)

[prior = +2.93%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June 2024: 314.540

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JULY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 2, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 2, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 226,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 219,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 220,750

====================

From Today's Report:

 "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending July 26, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 26 was 1,974,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021 when it was 2,041,000..."

 ====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================   

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 1, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 1, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -5,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 423,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
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U.S. Factory Shipments During June 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for  June, 2025:

========

Predicted: -5.0%

• Actual: -4.8% (-30,851,000,000)

========

• June, 2025 New Shipments: $611,682,000,000.
  
  
• May, 2025 New Shipments: $642,533,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$39,562,000,000 | +6.62% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
JUNE 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JUNE 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for June, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,437,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,712,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 7,412,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: +0.34% (+25,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,204,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: +2.28% (+116,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,142,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.32% (-142,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,604,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +9.34% (+137,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,060,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -0.08% (-4,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JUNE 2010 thru JUNE 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Employment Situation Report for JULY 2025

The Employment Situation Report for July, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +73,000

Previous Month (revised): 14,000
One Year Previous: 88,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 4.2%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 7.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.33% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.91% (+$1.37)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.62% (+$7.75)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.21% (+$50.50)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.2%
Previous Month: 62.3%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JULY 2005 THRU JULY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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