Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 25, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 25, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -12,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 100.2

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Previous Month (revised): 102.2

• Change from Previous Month: -1.96% (-2.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.'

'Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
November 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 57.0

• Actual: 56.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.18% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -15.73% (-10.6 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June. Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations. Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices.  Long-term business conditions declined a more modest 6%, while short-term business conditions and personal finances were essentially unchanged.

Inflation expectations were also little changed from October. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 4.9%, down slightly from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months. Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure..."

=========

• Five Patterns in Consumer
  Responses to Inflation

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 18, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 18, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -2,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 431,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for October 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2022:

Predicted: +1.0%

• Actual:  +1.272%(+$8,724,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During October 2022: $694,518,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.27% (+$53,059,000,000)

=================

 

Retail Sales for October 2022

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for October 2022

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for October 2022:

===============

Import Prices
Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +4.2%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +6.9%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2022

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2022 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +8.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +5.4%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 54.7

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.68% (-5.2 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -18.84% (-12.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices. Overall, declines in sentiment were observed across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation, showing that the recent improvements in sentiment were tentative. Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.

Inflation expectations are little changed. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months..."

=========

CHART: High Interest Rate Reasons for
Poor Buying Conditions and Interest Rates

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022:

=========================================

CPI During October 2022: 298.012

=========================================

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.406% (+1.204 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.745% (+21.423 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During October 2021: 276.589

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 5, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 5, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 225,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

From Today's Report

"...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 22 were in Puerto Rico (1.9), California (1.8), New Jersey (1.8), Alaska (1.6), New York (1.3), Massachusetts (1.2), Rhode Island (1.2), Nevada (1.1), and Oregon (1.1).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 29 were in California (+1,989), Oregon (+1,541), Washington (+693), Illinois (+457), and Minnesota (+456), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,534), Kentucky (-1,007), North Carolina (-659), Arkansas (-517), and South Carolina (-471)..."

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 4, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 4, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +5,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 440,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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Employment Situation Report for October 2022

Employment Situation Report for October 2022 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +261,000

Previous Month (Revised): 315,000
One Year Previous: 677,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 4.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.8%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 8.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.37% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.73% (+$1.47)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.37% (+$4.14)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.82% (+$41.38)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.2%
Previous Month: 62.3%
12 Months Previous: 61.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.5 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

 

CHART: U-3 Unemployment Rate
October 2022 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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