PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.6%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.6%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.2%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: FLAT

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.3%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - July 2023 Update

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 116.0

• Actual: 106.1

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Previous Month (revised): 114.0

• Change from Previous Month: -6.93% (-7.9 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- fell to 144.8 (1985=100) from 153.0. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- declined to 80.2 (1985=100) in August, reversing July’s sharp uptick to 88.0. Expectations were a hair above 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession, within the next year. Although consumer fears of an impending recession continued to recede, we still anticipate one is likely before year-end.

'Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups -- and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000. Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 August 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for July 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 9,500,000

• Actual:    8,827,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 9,165,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 11,380,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -22.43% (-2,553,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,773,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -8.94% (-567,000)

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QUITS: 3,549,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -11.63% (-467,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,555,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +3.87% (+58,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,483,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -6.5% (-381,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate
 July 2023 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 19, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 19, 2023:

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Predicted: 235,000

• Actual: 230,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 240,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 236,750

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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New Home Sales During July 2023

The July 2023 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 684,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 714,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: +30,000 units (+4.39%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +171,000 units (+31.49%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During July 2023: $436,700 
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During July 2023: $513,000

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Inventory: 437,000 (7.3 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
July 2023 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Existing Home Sales During July 2023

The Existing Home Sales report for July 2023 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,160,000

• Actual: 4,070,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: -2.16% (-9,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -16.6% (-81,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,110,000 (3.3 months supply.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $406,700
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.93% (+$7,000)

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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From Today's Report:

"...'Two factors are driving current sales activity – inventory availability and mortgage rates,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Unfortunately, both have been unfavorable to buyers.'

'Most homeowners continue to enjoy large wealth gains from recent years with little concern about home price declines,' Yun said. 'However, many renters are concerned as they’re facing growing affordability challenges because of high interest rates.'

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.09% as of August 17. That’s up from 6.96% the prior week and 5.13% one year ago..."

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
July 2023 UPDATE

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Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2023:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.4%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -4.4%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: +0.7%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -7.9%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
 July 2023 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
 July 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.73%(+$5,042,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During July 2023: $696,354,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.17% (+$21,422,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2022 Thru July 2023
Seasonally Adjusted

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.8%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
July 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2023:

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CPI During July 2023: 305.691

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.191% (+0.582 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.18% (+9.415 points)
  

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.16% (+0.492 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.65% (+13.756 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During July 2022: 296.276

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
July 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for July 2023

Employment Situation Report for July 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000

Previous Month (Revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 568,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.7%
Previous Month: 6.9%
12 Months Previous: 6.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.417% (+$0.14)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.361% (+$1.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.125% (+$1.44)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.46% (+$38.66)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.1%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
July 2023 Update

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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