PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2017

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2017:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%


The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Personal Income for the entire United States.

=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.3%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q2, 2017

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "final" (third estimate) report for the second quarter of 2017 was released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +3.1%
Actual: +3.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

============

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) increased $14.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of
$46.2 billion in the first quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $33.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $40.7 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $59.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.8 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $10.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $9.3 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $5.5 billion, and payments increased $16.3 billion..

============

GDP, Second Quarter 2017, Final Estimate

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 22, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 22, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -1,800,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -1,100,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 471,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Durable Goods Orders During August 2017

The Durable Goods Orders report for August 2017 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: +1.5%
Actual: +1.7%

================

• Previous month: -6.8%
  
  
• Change from 12 months previous: +5.1%
  

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September 2017) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 120.2
Actual: 119.8

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence decreased slightly in September after a marginal improvement in August,' said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Confidence in Texas and Florida, however, decreased considerably, as these two states were the most severely impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Despite the slight downtick in confidence, consumers’ assessment of current conditions remains quite favorable and their expectations for the short-term suggest the economy will continue expanding at its current pace.'

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions moderated in September. Those saying business conditions are 'good' decreased slightly from 34.5 percent to 33.9 percent, while those saying business conditions are 'bad' increased from 13.2 percent to 13.8 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also somewhat less upbeat. Those stating jobs are 'plentiful' declined from 34.4 percent to 32.6 percent, however, those claiming jobs are 'hard to get' decreased marginally from 18.4 percent to 18.1 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook was somewhat better in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose slightly from 19.8 percent to 20.2 percent, but those expecting business conditions to worsen increased from 8.0 percent to 9.9 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more favorable than in August. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 16.8 percent to 19.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose marginally from 13.2 percent to 13.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement increased moderately from 19.9 percent to 20.5 percent, while the proportion expecting a decline was virtually unchanged at 8.3 percent..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 120.4 (revised.)

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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New Home Sales During August 2017

The August 2017 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 583,000
Actual New Home Sales: 560,000

------------------------------------------------------

Change from One Month Previous: -3.4%

Change from One Year Previous: -1.2%

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home during August: $300,200

Average Price for a New Home during August: $368,100

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Chart.

------------------------------------------------------


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for August 2017

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for August 2017:

Predicted: +0.11
Actual (CFNAI): -0.31

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

========

• Previous Month (revised): +0.03

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.04
  

========

Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August 2017

========

From Today's Report

"...Index points to slower economic growth in August

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to -0.31 in August from +0.03 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from July, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.04 in August from a neutral reading in July.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at -0.01 in August. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to theCFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions. Forty-five indicators improved from July to August, while 40 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions..."

========

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

========

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report
  
  
• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
   

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Existing Home Sales During August 2017

The Existing Home Sales report for August 2017 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) this morning:

Predicted: 5,480,000
Actual: 5,350,000

•  Change from Previous Month: -1.7%
  
•  Change from One Year Previous: +0.2%

==========

Inventory: 1,880,000 (4.2 months supply)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During August 2017: $253,500

Change from One Year Previous: +5.6%

---------

Average Price for A Used Home During August 2017: $294,600

Change from One Year Previous: +4.5%

------------------------------------------------------ 

• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

==========

From today's report:

"...Existing-home sales stumbled in August for the fourth time in five months as strained supply levels continue to subdue overall activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest were outpaced by declines in the South and West..."

==========

• The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25^TH day of each month.

• Click here to view the NAR data.

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Housing Starts During August 2017

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for August 2017:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,173,000
Actual: 1,180,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.8%
Change From One Year Previous: +1.4%

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,220,000
Actual: 1,300,000

Change From Previous Month: +5.7%
Change From One Year Previous: +8.3%

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States,or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise --  and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2017

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2017:

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.3%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During August 2017

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for August 2017 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.9%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 76.7%
Actual: 76.1% 

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...Industrial production declined 0.9% in August following six consecutive monthly gains. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late August, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly 3/4 percentage point. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.3%; storm-related effects appear to have reduced the rate of change in factory output in August about 3/4 percentage point. The manufacturing industries with the largest estimated storm-related effects were petroleum refining, organic chemicals, and plastics materials and resins.

The output of mining fell 0.8% in August, as Hurricane Harvey temporarily curtailed drilling, servicing, and extraction activity for oil and natural gas. The output of utilities dropped 5.5%, as unseasonably mild temperatures, particularly on the East Coast, reduced the demand for air conditioning..."

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for August 2017

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for August 2017:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.2%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%

Estimated Retail Sales During August: $474,800,000,000

Change from 12 Months Previous: +3.2%

=================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full report.
  
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2017

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2017:

=========================================

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.9%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.7%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 8, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 8, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +5,900,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -11,900,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 468,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2017

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2017 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous: +2.0%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August 2017

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for August 2017:

=========

Predicted: 104.5
Actual: 105.3

• Change from Previous Month: +0.0951%.

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +11.5466%

=========

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - August 2017

=========

From today's report:

"...The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.1 points to 105.3 in August, basically unchanged from July. Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain and five declined. The Index peaked for this recovery at 105.9 in January, just 0.6 points above the August reading. It is unlikely that progress in Washington D.C. is the source of continued owner optimism because there isn’t any on the major issues of health care and tax reform. So owner optimism is more like a “relief rally”, relief that they did not get another four years of costly federal regulations which increased the hold of government on the private sector. The Congressional Record is nearly empty compared to years of record new and changed regulations posted for the past eight years..."

 =========

• Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 105.2.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) During July 2017

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) during July 2017 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

============

Job Openings

Predicted: 6,010,000
Actual:    6,170,000 (All-Time Record High)

• Previous Month (revised): 6,116,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 5,973,000

=============

Hires: 5,501,000

Total Separations: 5,332,000

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentage represents the estimated number of job openings in the United States during the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Here's how the Labor Department defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 1, 2017

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 1, 2017 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +4,600,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -18,400,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 462,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

• Click here for The Weekly Crude Oil Price

• Click here for A Crude Oil Price Chart

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q2 2017 (Revised)

Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter of 2017 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: +1.3%
Actual: +1.5%

Revised Reading from Previous Quarter: 0.0%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

Revised Reading from Previous Quarter: +2.2%

=============

The yellow-highlighted figures represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.

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Labor Productivity, Q2 2017 (Revised)

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Unit Labor Costs, Q2 2017 (Revised)

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For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 2, 2017

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 2, 2017:

Predicted: 241,000
Actual: 298,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 236,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 250,250
  

========

From today's report:

"...Hurricane Harvey impacted this week's initial claims...."

========

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for August 2017

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for August 2017:

Predicted: 55.8%
Actual: 55.3%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service categories include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

==========

The previous month's NMI reading was 53.9%.

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 92nd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

==========

Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

•     "Impressive numbers month-over-month, 8 percent more projects and 4 percent higher revenues."
   (Construction)

•     "Economy is chugging along. Decent crop yields seem to be offsetting poor commodity prices to some extent. Construction abounds."
   (Finance and Insurance)

•     "Volumes remain about the same. Actual revenue has decreased due to price compression."
   (Health Care and Social Assistance)

•     "Flat, stable pricing in the oil and gas sector currently has led to a flattening of supply chain activities."
   (Mining)

•     "The overall animal protein market is stable, except for pork bellies and bacon. A major shortage of raw material has caused prices to spike, with every restaurant and hotel using bacon or pork bellies on their menu. The demand has outstripped supply. This will continue for the next 3 ‒ 6 months. Eggs are at an all-time historical low and [there is] an overabundance of supply."
   (Accommodation and Food Services)

•     "Still optimistic conditions and attitudes about [the] economy, job and wage growth."
   (Professional, Scientific and Technical Services)

•     "Seasonally slow period. Preparations for busy quarter well under way."
   (Retail Trade)

•     "General slight increase in activity. Some stocking up in the market in anticipation of increased sales in the fall months and to cover for recent inventory shortfalls."
   (Wholesale Trade)
  
  

Click here to view the complete ISM report

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U.S. Factory Orders During July 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for July 2017:

Predicted: -3.2%
Actual: -3.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): +3.2%.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Employment Situation Report for August 2017

The Employment Situation Report for August 2017 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +180,000
Actual: +156,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Predicted: 4.3%
Actual: 4.4%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.6%
Previous Reading: 8.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1138%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.9%
Previous Reading (revised): 62.9%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $26.39 [+0.1138%], after rising by 9 cents in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 65 cents, or 2.5%. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $22.12 [+0.1812%].


The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +231,000 to +210,000, and the change for July was revised down from +209,000 to +189,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 41,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 185,000 per month over the past 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Result for August 2017

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Result for August 2017 was released today:

Predicted: 97.4
Actual: 96.8

• Change from Last Month: +3.6403%

• Change from 12 Months Ago: +7.7951%

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From today's report:

"...Consumer confidence has remained at a very favorable level, although slipping somewhat from mid-month. The Sentiment Index has been higher during the first eight months of 2017 than in any year since 2000, which was the peak year of the longest expansion in U.S. history. The renewed strength in 2017 was mainly due to consumers' favorable assessments of their own financial situations. Lows in unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, as well as renewed gains in the value of their homes and stock portfolios, pushed personal financial evaluations to near all-time peaks. When asked about news of recent developments, surprisingly few consumers made any reference to Charlottesville, North Korea, or Harvey-although too few interviews were conducted to fully assess the storm's ultimate impact. Harvey may diminish the 3rd quarter pace of economic growth, and higher gas prices will directly impact consumers. Prior to the storm, consumers anticipated no increase in gas prices in the year ahead (an expected change of just +0.4 cents). Given the current resilience of consumers, temporary increases in gas prices as well as a brief period of weakness in economic growth and employment are unlikely to derail confidence. Nonetheless, all of these events are more likely to increase precautionary motives and to slightly temper spending trend..."

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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

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• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Last month's final ICS reading was 93.4.

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

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Construction Spending During July 2017

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the Commerce Department -- released its Construction Spending report for July 2017:

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: -0.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Month (revised): -1.4%.

• Change from 12 months previous: +1.8%.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report

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ISM Manufacturing Index for August 2017

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August 2017:

Predicted: 56.6%
Actual: 58.8%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

The previous month's PMI reading was 56.3%.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August, and the overall economy grew for the 99th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

•     "Steady demand across businesses."
   (Chemical Products)

•     "Demand for light construction equipment continues strong; usually at this time of year, demand slackens."
   (Machinery)

•     "Overall very steady; starting to pick up as expected."
   (Computer and Electronic Products)

•     "Overall optimism about the market, both for 2017 and 2018."
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

•     "Business has strengthened over the summer, beyond [the] same period last year."
   (Paper Products)

•     "Busy production month for August."
   (Textile Mills)

•     "Sales remain strong month-to-month.
   (Transportation Equipment)

•     "Slightly higher order intake."
   (Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components)

•     "Order board is very strong right now."
   (Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products)

•     "Business is steady and strong."
   (Furniture and Related Products)
  
  

Click here to view the complete ISM report

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