Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.3%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
October 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 11, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 11, 2023:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 231,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 220,250

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for October 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2023:

Predicted: -0.2%

• Actual:  -0.106%(-$747,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During October 2023: $704,954,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.48% (+$17,083,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2021 Thru October 2023
Seasonally Adjusted

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023:

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CPI During October 2023: 307.671

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -0.038% (-0.118 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.241% (+9.659 points)
  

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.181% (+0.563 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.031% (+12.065 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During September 2022: 298.012

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
October 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for September 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 9,400,000

• Actual:    9,553,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 9,497,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 10,854,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -11.99% (-1,301,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,871,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.7% (-355,000)

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QUITS: 3,661,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -9.94% (-404,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,517,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +5.64% (+81,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,530,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.82% (-280,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate
 September 2023 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 4, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 4, 2023:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 217,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 212,250

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Employment Situation Report for October 2023

Employment Situation Report for October 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +150,000

Previous Month (Revised): 297,000
One Year Previous: 324,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.2%
Previous Month: 7.0%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.206% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.103% (+$1.34)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.085% (-$0.99)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.2% (+$36.16)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.8%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.3 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
October 2023 UPDATE

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 101.0

• Actual: 102.6

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Previous Month (revised): 104.3

• Change from Previous Month: -1.63% (-1.7 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations index is still below 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024.

'Consumer confidence fell again in October 2023, marking three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'October’s retreat reflected pullbacks in both the Present Situation and Expectations Index.

Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.

Worries around war / conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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