PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April,  2024:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.5%

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - April 2024 Update

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   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 25, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 25, 2024:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 219,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 216,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 222,500

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 102.0

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Previous Month (revised): 97.5

• Change from Previous Month: +4.62% (+4.5 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index. Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years.

'Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups. In terms of income, those making over $100K expressed the largest rise in confidence. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.'

Peterson added: 'According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%. Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55.2% to 56.2%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Financial Situation both currently and over the next six months (measures not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index) deteriorated slightly.

'The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns. The Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose again in May, with more consumers believing recession is ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’. This contrasts with CEO assessments of recession risk: according to our CEO Confidence survey, only 35% of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Consumers were nonetheless upbeat about the stock market, with 48.2% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 25.4% expecting a decrease and 26.4 expecting no change.'

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012. While still relatively depressed, buying plans for autos rose slightly for a second month, and buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months. Meanwhile, buying plans for electronics products were largely unchanged except for smartphones, which saw renewed interest...."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
May 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
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New Home Sales During April, 2024

The April, 2024 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 665,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 634,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -31,000 units (-4.66%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -53,000 units (-7.71%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During April, 2024: $433,500
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During April, 2024: $505,700

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Inventory: 480,000 (9.1 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
April, 2024 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Existing Home Sales During April 2024

Existing Home Sales report for April 2024 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

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Previous Month: 4,220,000

• Actual: 4,140,000

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•  Change from Previous Month: -1.9% (-80,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -1.9% (-80,000 homes)

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Inventory: 1,210,000 (3.5 months supply.)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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• Median Price: $407,600
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +5.65% (+$21,800)

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• Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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From Today's Report:

"...According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.02% as of May 16. That's down from 7.09% the previous week but up from 6.39% one year ago..."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
APRIL 2024 UPDATE

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• Click here to view the NAR data.

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Leading Economic Index for April 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2024 this morning:

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Index for April 2024: 101.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.21% (-5.6 points)

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• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.7
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.5
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.0
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year.

While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in April 2024 to 112.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2% in March. As a result, the CEI was up 0.9% over the six-month period ending April 2024, slightly ahead of its 0.8% increase over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month. Personal income less transfer payments made the largest positive contribution to the Index..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2024:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.6% (revised)
Actual: +0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.1%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -1.0%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
April 2024 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
April 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2024:

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CPI During April 2024: 313.548

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.39% (+1.216 points) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.36% (+10.185 points)

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.28% (+0.89 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.61% (+11.079 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During April 2023: 303.363

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 CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2024 was released this morning:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.2%

• > Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.2%  (prior = +2.1%)

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.2%

• > Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.1%  (prior = +2.8%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
APRIL 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 3, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 3, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -3,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 459,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 4, 2024

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 4, 2024:

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Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 231,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 209,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 215,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Employment Situation Report for April 2024

Employment Situation Report for April 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +175,000

Previous Month (Revised): 315,000
One Year Previous: 278,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 3.4%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.4%
Previous Month: 7.3%
12 Months Previous: 6.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.202% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.92% (+$1.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.09% (-$1.06)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.92% (+$44.94)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.7%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Workweek: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.4 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
April 2004 THRU April 2024

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for March 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 8,500,000

• Actual:   8,488,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 8,813,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 9,623,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -11.79% (-1,135,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,500,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.64% (-455,000)

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QUITS: 3,329,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -12.6% (-480,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,526,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -16.38% (-299,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,200,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -12.12% (-717,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
MARCH 2024 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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