PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.1%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Home Sales During June 2023

The June 2023 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Predicted: 710,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 697,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: -18,000 units (-2.517%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +134,000 units (+23.801%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During June 2023: $415,400 
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During June 2023: $494,700

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Inventory: 432,000 (7.4 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
June 2023 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 112.0

• Actual: 117.0

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Previous Month (revised): 110.1

• Change from Previous Month: +6.27% (+6.9 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- improved to 88.3 (1985=100) from 80.0 in June. Importantly, Expectations climbed well above 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year-end.

'Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 July 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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Leading Economic Index for June 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2023 this morning:

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Index for June 2023: 106.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.7%

• Actual: -0.748% (-0.8 point)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.39% (-11.0 points)

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• LEI for May 2023: 106.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.5
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
June 2023 UPDATE

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023 -- a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).

'The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months -- the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the run-up to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead.

We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for June 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.194%(+$1,338,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During June 2023: $689,499,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.49% (+$10,123,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales During June 2023

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.4% (revised)
Actual: -0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -6.1%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading: -1.9%
Actual: -0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -12.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
 June 2023 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
 June 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.1%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: FLAT
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
June 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023:

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CPI During June 2023: 305.109

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.323% (+0.982 point)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +2.97% (+8.798 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.264% (+0.814 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.83% (+14.23 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During June 2022: 296.311

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
June 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for June 2023:

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Predicted: 90.0
Actual: 91.0

• Change from Previous Month: +1.79% (+1.6 points.)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +1.68% (+1.5 points.)

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CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
June 2023 Update 

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From Today's Report:

"...'Halfway through the year, small business owners remain very pessimistic about future business conditions and their sales prospects, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses. Owners are still raising selling prices at an inflationary level to try to pass on higher inventory, labor, and energy costs.'...'

Key Findings Include:

    -- Forty-two percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down two points from May but remaining historically very high.

    -- Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved 10 points from May to a net negative 40%, 21 percentage points better than last June’s reading of a net negative 61%.

    -- The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher improved seven points from May to a net negative 14%..."

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• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 89.4.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

 
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Employment Situation Report for June 2023

Employment Situation Report for June 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +209,000

Previous Month (Revised): 306,000
One Year Previous: 370,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.7%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.36% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.35% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.65% (+$7.47)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$41.72)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U-3 (Official) Unemployment Rate
June 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs for June 2023

Earlier today, the global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its report on Corporate Layoffs for June 2023:

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Job Cuts Announced During June 2023: 40,709

• Previous month: 80,089

• Change from previous month: -49.17% (-39,380)

• Change from one year previous: +25.19% (8,192)
  

-------------------------------

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.
 

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Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs
Technology Jobs Cuts
 June 2023 UPDATE

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• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for May 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 10,000,000

• Actual:    9,824,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 10,320,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 11,443,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.148% (-1,619,000)
  

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HIRES: 6,208,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.15% (-337,000)

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QUITS: 4,015,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.59% (-193,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,555,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +4.93% (+73,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,871,000

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate
May 2023 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 1, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 1, 2023:

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Predicted: 250,000

• Actual: 248,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 236,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 253,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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