Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for April 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 9,400,000

• Actual:    10,103,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 9,745,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 11,755,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.054% (-1,652,000)
  

=============

Hires: 6,115,000

-----------

Quits: 3,793,000

-----------

Layoffs + Discharges: 1,581,000 

-----------

Total Separations ^§: 5,708,000

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate
April 2023 UPDATE

=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.9

• Actual: 102.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.7

• Change from Previous Month: -1.35% (-1.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.' Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 percentage points from 47.5% in April to 43.5% in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.' 

'Consumers’ inflation expectations remain elevated, but stable. Consumers in May expected inflation to average 6.1% over the next 12 months, essentially unchanged from 6.2% in April, though down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year. Nonetheless, consumers continued to view inflation as a major influence on their view of the US economy. Plans to purchase homes in the next six months held steady in May at around 5.6 percent, but was still notably down from 6 to 7 percent in Q4 2022. Meanwhile, plans to purchase autos and big-ticket appliances ticked up somewhat compared to April.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 May 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April 2023:

==================

Predicted: -0.20

• Actual (CFNAI): +0.07

==================

• Previous Month (revised): -0.37

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.22
  

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

 CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Inflation Cycles
April 2023 Update

====================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for April 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for April 2023: 107.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.5%

• Actual: -0.647% (-0.7 point)

==============

• LEI for March 2023: 108.2
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.5
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

 

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2023 UPDATE
 

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread, but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline.

Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April.

Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 13, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 13, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 245,000

• Actual: 242,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 264,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 244,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Housing Starts During April 2023

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for April 2023:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000
Actual: 1,401,000

Change From Previous Month: +2.19% (+30,000 New Units)

• Change From One Year Previous: -22.3% (-402,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,400,000
Actual: 1,416,000

Change From Previous Month: -1.46% (-21,000 New Permits)

• Change From One Year Previous: -21.11%  (-379,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
 April 2023 Update

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.421%(+$2,873,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During April 2023: $686,052,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.57% (+$10,775,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales During April 2023

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -4.8%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -5.9%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 

CHART: Import Price Index
 April 2023 Update

=================

 

CHART: Export Price Index
 April 2023 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month: -0.5%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.3%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
 April 2023 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2023:

=========================================

CPI During April 2023: 303.363

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.506% (+1.527 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.93% (+14.254 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.466% (+1.423 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.52% (+16.053 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  April 2022: 289.109

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
 April 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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Employment Situation Report for April 2023

Employment Situation Report for April 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +253,000

Previous Month (Revised): 165,000
One Year Previous: 254,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.4%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 3.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.6%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.482% (+$0.16)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.45% (+$1.42)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.482% (+$5.50)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.842% (+$42.46)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: U-3 Unemployment Rate
April 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q1 2023 (Preliminary)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2023 (preliminary):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: -1.0%
Actual: -2.7%

• Change from A Year Ago: -0.9%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +6.3%

• Change from A Year Ago: +5.8%

=============

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


===================

 

CHART: Labor Productivity
Q1 2019 Through Q1 2023 (Preliminary)

===================

CHART: Unit Labor Costs
Q1 2019 Through Q1 2023 (Preliminary)

===================

  

 

  CHART: Labor Productivity, Output
and Hours Worked Index Series
 Q4 2019 through Q1 2023

    

===================

 

From Today's Report

 

"...From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.9%, reflecting a 1.3% increase in output and a 2.3% increase in hours worked. The 0.9-percent productivity decline is the first time the four-quarter change series has remained negative for five consecutive quarters; this series begins in the first quarter of 1948..."

 ===================

 Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

===================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for March 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 9,500,000

• Actual:    9,590,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 9,974,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 12,027,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -20.263% (-2,437,000)
  

=============


Hires: 6,149,000

-----------

Quits: 3,851,000

-----------

Layoffs + Discharges: 1,805,000 

-----------

Total Separations ^§: 5,932,000

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate
March 2023 UPDATE

=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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