PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2

• Actual: +0.3%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.4%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.7%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - September 2023 Update

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* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Home Sales During September 2023

The September 2023 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

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Previous Month (revised): 676,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 759,000

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• Change from 1 Month Previous: +83,000 units (+12.28%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +192,000 units (+33.86%)

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Median Price for a New Home
During September 2023: $418,800 
 

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Average Price for a New Home
During September 2023: $503,900

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Inventory: 435,000 (6.9 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

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CHART: New Home Sales
September 2023 Update

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• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for September 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for September 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.714%(+$4,999,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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• Estimated Retail Sales During September 2023: $704,881,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.75% (+$25,502,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2021 Thru September 2023
Seasonally Adjusted

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2023:

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CPI During September 2023: 307.789

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.249% (+0.763 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.7% (+10.981 points)
  

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Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.23% (+0.714 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.15% (+12.375 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During September 2022: 296.808

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CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
September 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

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Employment Situation Report for September 2023

Employment Situation Report for September 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +336,000

Previous Month (Revised): 227,000
One Year Previous: 350,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.8%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.0%
Previous Month: 7.1%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.207% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.15% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.207% (+$2.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.55% (+$39.93)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.8%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
September 2023 UPDATE

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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for August 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 9,500,000

• Actual:    9,610,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 8,920,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 10,198,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -5.77% (-588,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,857,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -9.59% (-621,000)

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QUITS: 3,638,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -14.24% (-604,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES:  1,680,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +3.26% (+53,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,676,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -9.1% (-568,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Job Openings Rate
 August 2023 UPDATE

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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