New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 23, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 23, 2023:

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Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 204,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 202,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 211,000

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2023:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.9%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

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Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2

• Actual: +0.4%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.5%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.9%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

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CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - August 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 103.0

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Previous Month (revised): 108.7

• Change from Previous Month: -5.24% (-5.7 points)
  

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.'

Peterson added: 'Assessments of the present situation were little changed overall, due to divergent views on the state of business conditions and job availability. Fewer consumers said that business conditions were good, but fewer also said they were bad. Regarding the employment situation, slightly more consumers said that jobs were 'plentiful,' but also slightly more said that jobs were 'hard to get.' When asked about current family financial conditions (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index), the share of respondents citing a ‘good’ situation fell again, and those citing ‘bad’ conditions rose, signaling rising concerns about current family finances.

'Expectations for the next six months tumbled back below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting less confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes. Consumers may be hearing more bad news about corporate earnings, while job openings are narrowing, and interest rates continue to rise -- making big-ticket items more expensive. Expectations for interest rates declined in September after surging in the prior month, but the outlook for stock prices continued to fall. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations have held steady over the past three months despite ongoing complaints about higher prices. Still, the measure of expected family financial situation, six months hence (not included in the Expectations Index) worsened further.

'The proportion of consumers saying recession is ‘somewhat’ or ‘very likely’ rose in September after dropping in August. The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos were flat but remained at an elevated level, while plans to purchase appliances continued to trend upward. But plans to buy homes -- more in line with rising interest rates -- continued to trend downward.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
September 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

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Leading Economic Index for August 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2023 this morning:

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Index for August 2023: 105.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.7%

• Actual: -0.38% (-0.4 point)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.45% (-11.0 points)

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• LEI for July 2023: 105.8
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
August 2023 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4% in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3% in July. The LEI is down 3.8% over the six-month period between February and August 2023 -- little changed from its 3.9% contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023.)

'With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2023, and then fall to 0.8% in 2024.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 16, 2023

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 16, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 201,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 217,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2023:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading:+0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -3.0%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading: +0.5% (revised)
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -5.5%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index
August 2023 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index
 August 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: +0.7%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.6%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.0%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

 

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
August 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2023:

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CPI During August 2023: 307.026

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Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.437% (+1.335 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.67% (+10.855 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.23% (+0.701 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.35% (+12.925 points)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2022: 296.171

========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
August 2023 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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Employment Situation Report for August 2023

Employment Situation Report for August 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000

Previous Month (Revised): 157,000
One Year Previous: 352,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.1%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.237% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.29% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.53% (+$6.13)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.98% (+$44.57)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
August 2023 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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