Employment Situation Report for MAY 2025

The Employment Situation Report for May 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +139,000

Previous Month (revised): 147,000
One Year Previous: 193,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.8%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.42% (+$0.15)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.87% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.42% (+$5.14)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.87% (+$46.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
MAY 2005 THRU MAY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for MAY 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for May 2025:

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Job Cuts Announced During May 2025: 93,816

• Previous Month: 105,441

  > Change from previous month: -11.03% (-11,625 cuts)

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• One-Year Previous: 63,816

 > Change from one-year previous: +47.01% (+30,000 cuts)

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From Today's Report:

"...'Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces. Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices,' said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Why are Companies Cutting in 2025?

'DOGE Impact' remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 284,044 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. Additionally, DOGE Downstream Impact, such as the loss of funding to private Non-Profits, was cited in another 10,459 cuts.

Market and Economic Conditions were the second-most cited reason for workforce reductions, responsible for 131,257 cuts year to date, followed by Closings of stores, units, or plants, which led to 94,439 layoffs.

Restructuring accounted for 62,015 cuts, while Bankruptcy was attributed to 35,501. Notably, Technological Updates, including those related to AI implementation, led to 20,000 job cuts so far in 2025..."

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If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
MAY 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 31, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 31, 2025:

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Predicted: 240,000

• Actual: 247,000

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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 239,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 235,000

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 30, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 30, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -4,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -19,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 436,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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U.S. Factory Shipments During April 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for April 2025:

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Predicted: -3.5%

• Actual: -3.69% (-22,804,000,000)

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• April 2025 New Shipments: $594,614,000,000.
  
  
• March 2025 New Shipments: $617,418,000,000.
  

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• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$3,565,000,000 | +0.61% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
APRIL 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for April, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,200,000

• Actual:   7,391,000

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• Previous Month (revised): 7,200,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 7,619,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -2.99% (-228,000)
  

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HIRES: 5,573,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -0.2% (-11,000)

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QUITS: 3,194,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -6.44% (-220,000)

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LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,786,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +12.54% (+199,000)

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TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,288,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.86% (-100,000)

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§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
APRIL 2010 thru APRIL 2025

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• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.9%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.4%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: Import Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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