International Trade Balance Level for January, 2007

The International Trade Balance Level for January, 2007 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $ -59,800,000,000
Actual: $ -59,100,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the balance of trade -- imports vs. exports -- between the United States and all other countries, and includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Consumer Credit Status Report for January, 2007 Released Today

The Consumer Credit status report for January, 2007 was released by the Fed earlier this afternoon:

Actual: +$6,500,000,000

The above figures represent the month-to-month change in total outstanding, installment-based consumer credit; includes car loans and credit cards.


Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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U.S. Factory Orders Report for January, 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for January, 2007:

Predicted: -4.5%
Actual: -5.6%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Construction Spending during January, 2007

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department -- released the Construction Spending report for January, 2007:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.8%

Change from last year: -1.2%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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New Home Sales for January, 2007

The January, 2007 New Home Sales report was released this morning:

Predicted New Home Sales for January, 2007: 1,080,000

Actual New Home Sales for January, 2007: 937,000

------------------------------------------------------

December, 2006 New Home Sales (Revised): 1,123,000

January, 2006 New Home Sales: 1,173,000

------------------------------------------------------

January, 2007 New Home Sales: Median Price: $239,800

January, 2007 New Home Sales: Average Price: $313,000


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Existing Home Sales for January, 2007

The Existing Home Sales report for January, 2007 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 6,250,000
Actual: 6,460,000

Median Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In January, 2007: $210,600

Average Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In January, 2007: $257,400


The U.S. Existing Home Sales report is a sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for a given month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25^TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.

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Durable Goods Orders Report for January, 2007 Released Today

The Durable Goods Orders report for January, 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: -3.0%
Actual: -7.8%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, microwave ovens, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Leading Economic Indicators for January, 2007

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for January, 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.1%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

1. The Money Supply (M2)
   
2. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index
   
3. The interest rate spread between the yield on Ten-year Treasury Notes and the Fed Funds Target Rate
   
   
4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
   
6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
7. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
8. The Index of Consumer Expectations
   
9. Vendor performance
   
10. Building permits for new private housing

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2007

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2007:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The above numbers represent the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The CPI for January, 2007: 202.416 (the baseline 100 score is pegged to 1982-1984 data. In other words, consumer prices have more than doubled since the early 80's)

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food & Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods & Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, 2007

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.6%

Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The PPI is a family or amalgamation of indexes, including The:

• All Commodities Index
• Crude Energy Materials Index
• Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs Index
• Crude Materials for Further Processing Index
• Finished Goods Index
  
• Finished Consumer Foods Index
• Finished Consumer Goods Index
• Finished Consumer Goods Excluding Foods Index
• Finished Energy Goods Index
• Finished Goods: Capital Equipment Index
• Finished Goods Excluding Foods Index
• Finished Goods Less Energy Index
• Finished Goods Less Food & Energy Index
• Fuels & Related Products & Power Index
• Industrial Commodities Index
• Intermediate Energy Goods Index
• Intermediate Foods & Feeds Index
  
• Intermediate Materials: Supplies & Components Index
  

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Housing Starts in January, 2007

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for January, 2007:

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,600,000
Actual: 1,408,000

Building Permits:
Actual: 1,568,000

The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in The United States for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. The monthly Housing Starts report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Industrial Production for January, 2007

The Industrial Production numbers for January, 2007 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.5%

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 81.6%
Actual: 81.2%

The above Industrial Production numbers represent the month-to-month change in physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

The Capacity Utilization Rate percentages represent the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January, 2007

The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released the price indexes for U.S. imports and exports for January, 2007 :

Import Prices
Predicted: -1.0
Actual: -1.2%

Export Prices
Actual: +0.3%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices for

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the U.S.
  
  
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the U.S. and sold in other countries.
  

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The following is a clip from today's Labor Department report:

"Import Goods

Import prices fell 1.2 percent in January after increases of 1.1 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in December and November. A 7.3 percent decrease in petroleum prices drove the overall January drop, as petroleum prices resumed a recent downward pattern after increasing 4.6 percent in December. Nonpetroleum prices were unchanged in January after a 0.5 percent advance the previous month. Prices for nonpetroleum imports rose 1.6 percent over the 12 months ended in January.

Changes in prices for nonpetroleum imports were highlighted by a turnaround in the index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials prices, which declined 1.0 percent. The January decrease followed increases of 1.7 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, in December and November. The drop in nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials prices was driven by a downturn in natural gas prices. In the previous two months, natural gas prices had led the advance in nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials prices. Capital goods prices edged down 0.1 percent, declining for the first time since a 0.1 percent decrease in April 2006.

In contrast, the price index for consumer goods rose 0.3 percent. The increase in consumer goods prices was driven by higher prices for medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical preparatory materials. The price indexes for foods, feeds, and beverages and for automotive vehicles also increased in January, advancing 1.5 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. A 4.9 percent increase in vegetables prices led the January rise in foods, feeds, and beverages prices. In December, the index for foods, feeds, and beverages had increased 0.7 percent. The modest increase in prices for automotive vehicles in January followed a 0.1 percent drop in December.


Export Goods

Export prices increased 0.3 percent in January as higher prices for both agricultural and nonagricultural exports contributed to the rise. The advance in the prices for overall exports followed increases of 0.7 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in December and November. For the year ended in January, export prices rose 4.1 percent. The 0.7 percent increase in agricultural prices was led by higher prices for vegetables and meat, which more than offset lower prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Agricultural prices rose 13.5 percent over the past 12 months. Nonagricultural prices also increased in January, rising 0.3 percent.

A 0.3 percent advance in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices led the January increase in nonagricultural prices. Metals prices continued to rise in January. However, prices for fuels and lubricants, up over the past 12 months, fell in January. For the year ended in January, nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices rose 8.4 percent.

Prices for each of the major finished goods areas also increased in January. The price index for capital goods, which makes up about 40 percent of overall exports, rose 0.2 percent for the month and 0.9 percent over the past year. Automotive vehicles prices increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. Prices for automotive vehicles rose 1.5 percent for the year ended in January. The price index for consumer goods advanced 0.8 percent for the month and 2.4 percent for the January 2006-2007 period."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for January, 2007

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for January, 2007:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.0%

Minus Auto Sales
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual : +0.3%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

Retail & Food Services Sales since January, 2006: +2.3%.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Treasury Budget for January, 2007

The U.S. Treasury Budget monthly account for January, 2007 was released today:

Predicted: +40,000,000,000
Actual: +$38,200,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the monthly balance on the U.S. federal government's "books" and is compiled by The Treasury Department. A positive number represents a surplus, while a negative represents a deficit.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting.

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Consumer Sentiment for January, 2007

Consumer Sentiment for January, 2007:

Predicted: 98.0
Actual: 96.9

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 91.7.

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U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Report for January, 2007

The Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales report for January, 2007 was released this afternoon:

Predicted: 12,900,000
Actual: 12,600,000

The above figures represent unit sales of American-made cars, minivans, SUV's and light trucks. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs for January, 2007

Earlier today, the outplacement company Challenger released their report on corporate layoffs for January, 2007:

U.S. Job Cuts Announced during January, 2007: 62,975

When the corporate layoff numbers are high, consumer spending may decline, since there are less people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 27, 2007

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on January 27, 2007:

Predicted: 315,000
Actual: 307,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January, 2007

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (January, 2007) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 110.0
Actual: 110.3

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 109.0.

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