Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -2.68% (-1.4 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -26.48% (-18.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes.

Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture -- consumers continue to express somber views about the economy. The initial reaction so far echoes the very minor increase in sentiment seen after the April 9 partial pause on tariffs, despite which sentiment continued its downward trend.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% last month to 7.3% this month. This month’s rise was seen among Democrats and Republicans alike. Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans. The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations..."

=========

CHART: Consumers Anticipate Rising Unemployment
and Elevated Risks of Personal Job Loss
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025:

=========================================

CPI During April 2025: 320.795

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.311% (+0.996 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.31% (+7.247 points)

[prior = +2.39%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.27% (+0.882 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.78% (+8.837 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During April 2024: 313.548

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +3.0%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for April 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for April 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 50.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.42% (-4.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -32.38% (-25.00 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2024: 77.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions.

Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation.

Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak.

Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.

As seen in the chart, inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month. After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March.

Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents..."

=========

  

CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated After
Surging and Softening Modestly Following
April 2025 Tariff Developments
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for April 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for April 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -10.88% (-6.2 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -34.2% (-26.4 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2024: 77.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March. This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation. Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year.

Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month.

The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009. This lack of labor market confidence lies in sharp contrast to the past several years, when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between March 25 and April 8, closing prior to the April 9 tariff partial reversal.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents..."

=========

CHART: Share of Consumers Expecting
Rising unemployment Up Five Straight Months;
Highest Since 2009 - APRIL 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025:

=========================================

CPI During March 2025: 319.799

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.225% (+0.717 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.39% (+7.467 points)

[prior = +2.82%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.209% (+0.681 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.79% (+8.845 points)

[prior = +3.12%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During March 2024: 312.332

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
MARCH 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================   

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): -0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.5%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays and Savings
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 92.9

================

Previous Month (revised): 100.1

• Change from Previous Month: -7.19% (-7.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral. Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low. Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income -- which had held up quite strongly in the past few months -- largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.'

Guichard added: 'Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023. In March, only 37.4% expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead -- down nearly 10 percentage points from February and 20 percentage points from the high reached in November 2024. On the flip side, 44.5% expected stock prices to decline (up 11 ppts from February and over 22 ppts more than November 2024). Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations rose again -- from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March -- as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
MARCH 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for March 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for March 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 57.9

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -10.51% (-6.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -27.08% (-21.5 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for February 2025: 64.7
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for March 2024: 79.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets,  inflation, business conditions, and stock markets. Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences. Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February. Despite their greater confidence following the election, Republicans posted a sizable 10% decline in their expectations index in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% this month, the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 3.9% in March. This is the largest month-over-month increase seen since 1993, stemming from a sizable rise among Independents, and followed an already-large increase in February..."

=========

   

CHART: Unemployment and
Inflation Expectations Worsen
March 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025:

=========================================

CPI During February 2025: 319.082

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.44% (+1.411 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.82% (+8.756 points)

[prior = +3.00%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.4%

 - > Actual: +0.44% (+1.41 points) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.12% (+9.833 points)

[prior = +3.26%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During February 2024: 310.326

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================  

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.8%

• Actual: -0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4%

• Actual: +0.9%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays and Savings
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 98.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 105.3

• Change from Previous Month: -6.65% (-7.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly.

'Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.'

February’s fall in confidence was shared across all age groups but was deepest for consumers between 35 and 55 years old. The decline was also broad-based among income groups, with the only exceptions among households earning less than $15,000 a year and between $100,000–125,000.

Guichard added: 'Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs. References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics.

'There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.'

Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation were less positive, retreating from the series highs reached in January. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months increased to a nine-month high. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®.)

Consumers’ bullishness about the stock market also retreated: only 46.8% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead -- the smallest share since April 2024, and down from 54.2% in January. By contrast, 32.8% expected stock prices to decline, up from 24.8% in January. More than half (51.7%) of consumers expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months. The share of consumers expecting lower interest rates dropped further to 24.0% from 27.1% last month.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes continued to recover, likely supported by the very recent decline in mortgage rates. On the other hand, buying plans for cars and big-ticket items were down, with notable declines for TVs and electronics.

Consumers ’ overall intentions to purchase additional services in the months ahead were changed little, but their priorities shifted slightly: personal and health care, as well as movies and live entertainment, moved up the priority list, at the expense of streaming and travel. Vacation plans continued to trend downward..."

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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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