PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  September, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 108.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 99.2

• Change from Previous Month: +9.58% (+9.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Confidence Rebounded in October as Consumers Regained Faith in the US Economy
'Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board®. 'In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.

'October’s increase in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. In terms of age, confidence rose sharpest for consumers aged 35 to 54. On a six-month moving average basis, householders aged under 35 and those earning over $100K remained the most confident.'

Peterson added: 'The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022, as did the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession. Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation were unchanged, but optimism for the next six months reached a series high. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®).'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
OCTOBER 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for  August, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - JULY 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 103.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.9

• Change from Previous Month: +1.37% (+1.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board®. 'Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.'

Peterson added: 'Consumers were likely rattled by the financial market turmoil in early August, as they were less upbeat about the stock market. In August, 46.9% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead (down from 50.6% in July), while 27.2% expected a decrease (up from 23.1%). August’s write-in responses also included more mentions of stock prices and unemployment as affecting consumer’s views of the US economy. However, consumers did not change their views about a possible recession: the proportion of consumers predicting a recession was stable and well below the 2023 peak.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
AUGUST 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 100.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.8

• Change from Previous Month: +2.6% (+2.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in July to 100.3 (1985 = 100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- declined to 133.6 from 135.3 last month. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions improved in July to 78.2. That’s up from 72.8 in June but still below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead). The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 22, 2024.

'Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.'

'Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were a bit less positive about current labor and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: while still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor market situation declined to its lowest level since March 2021.'

Peterson added: 'The proportion of consumers predicting a forthcoming recession ticked up in July but remains well below the 2023 peak. Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Financial Situation -- both currently and over the next six months -- was less positive. Indeed, assessments of familial finances have deteriorated continuously since
the beginning of 2024.'

Average 12-month inflation expectations remained stable at 5.4% in July, compared to a peak of 7.9% reported in 2022. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months dropped for the second month in a row to 50.3% -- the lowest since February 2024. Meanwhile, consumers were positive about the stock market, with 49.1% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead (the highest share since March), 23.5% expecting a decrease, and 27.4% expecting no change.

July’s write-in responses showed that elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, and inflation (the rate of change in prices), remain the key drivers of consumers’ views of the economy, followed by the US political situation and the labor market. Mentions about the forthcoming elections increased, although the share of respondents believing the 2024 election would impact the economy was lower than write-ins from July 2016.

2024 election would impact the economy was lower than write-ins from July 2016. On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes fell to a 12-year low. While buying plans for cars were little changed, buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased slightly. Additionally, more consumers reported plans to buy a smartphone or laptop/PC in the next six months..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
JULY 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (revised) +0.4%

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: FLAT

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - June 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.5%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - May 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June, 2024) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 100.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.3

• Change from Previous Month: -0.9% (-0.9 point)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Consumers’ Persistent Concerns about the Future Continues to Weigh on Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped in June to 100.4 (1985 = 100), down from 101.3 in May. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 141.5 from 140.8 last month.

However, the Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- fell to 73.0 in June, down from 74.9 in May. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.

'Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

'Consumers expressed mixed feelings this month: their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled. Meanwhile, for the second month in a row, consumers were a bit less pessimistic about future labor market conditions. However, their expectations for both future income and business conditions weakened, weighing down the overall Expectations Index.'

'The decline in confidence between May and June was centered on consumers aged 35-54. By contrast, those under 35 and those 55 and older saw confidence improve this month. No clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.'

Peterson added: 'Compared to May, consumers were less concerned about a forthcoming recession. However, consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Financial Situation -- both currently and over the next six months -- was less positive.' (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®)

Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down slightly from 5.4% to 5.3%. June’s write-in responses revealed that elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, continued to impact consumers’ views of the economy, followed by the labor market and US political situation. Notably, the share of respondents believing the 2024 election would impact the economy was low in comparison to write-ins in June of 2016 and slightly higher than in 2020.

Consumers were positive about the stock market, with 48.4% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 23.5% expecting a decrease and 28.1% expecting no change. Meanwhile, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months dropped to 52.6%, its lowest level since February.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were largely unchanged and remained historically low in June. Buying plans for cars also stalled. Meanwhile, buying plans for most big-ticket appliances and smartphones increased slightly, though fewer consumers planned to buy a laptop or a PC.

The share of consumers planning a vacation† over the next six months continued to increase and remains above last June’s level. More consumers planned to vacation in the United States than abroad. As in recent years, more people plan to travel by car than by plane. Overall, the share of consumers planning to go on vacation is still about 10 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
June 2024 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
  ================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April,  2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.5%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.2%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - April 2024 Update

   =====================
   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2024

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 102.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 97.5

• Change from Previous Month: +4.62% (+4.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline,' said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index. Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years.

'Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups. In terms of income, those making over $100K expressed the largest rise in confidence. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.'

Peterson added: 'According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy. Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%. Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55.2% to 56.2%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Financial Situation both currently and over the next six months (measures not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index) deteriorated slightly.

'The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns. The Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose again in May, with more consumers believing recession is ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’. This contrasts with CEO assessments of recession risk: according to our CEO Confidence survey, only 35% of CEOs surveyed in April anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Consumers were nonetheless upbeat about the stock market, with 48.2% expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 25.4% expecting a decrease and 26.4 expecting no change.'

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since August 2012. While still relatively depressed, buying plans for autos rose slightly for a second month, and buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months. Meanwhile, buying plans for electronics products were largely unchanged except for smartphones, which saw renewed interest...."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
May 2024 Update

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• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.  
  
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