Challenger Job Cuts Report for JANUARY 2026

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for JANUARY, 2026:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During January 2026: 108,435

• Previous Month: 35,553

  > Change from previous month: +205% (+72,882 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 49,795

 > Change from one-year previous: +117.76% (+58,640 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...HIRING PLANS IN JANUARY

Last month, employers announced 5,306 hiring plans, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009. Prior to last month’s total, 2023 saw the lowest January total for hiring with 5,376. It is down 13% from the 6,089 hiring plans announced in the same month last year. It is down 49% from the 10,496 hiring plans announced in December 2025...."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
JANUARY 2026 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

=================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 31, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 31, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 231,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 209,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 212,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for DECEMBER 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for December, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,100,000

• Actual:   6,542,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 6,928,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -5.57% (-386,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,508,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -12.87% (-966,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,293,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -1.51% (-81,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,204,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: +3.52% (+109,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,762,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.57% (-93,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,251,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -3.33% (-169,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

DECEMBER 2010 thru DECEMBER 2025

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Manufacturing Index for JANUARY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for January, 2026:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 52.6% (+4.7 points month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 47.9%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report...."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•      ' ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.'
   [Transportation Equipment] 

•     'Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.'
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.' [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.'
   [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products] 

•     'A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico -- which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.'
   [Chemical Products] 

•     'Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 

•     'Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations.
  
  Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. 
  
  But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.'
   [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
January 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
January 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Leading Economic Index for NOVEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for November, 2025:

==============

Index for November, 2025: 97.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.31% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.74% (-3.8 points)

============== 

• LEI for October 2025: 98.2 
   
• LEI for September 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7 
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in both October and November,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• Real Disposable Personal Income: +0.1% 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 17, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 17, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 203,000

• Actual: 200,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 199,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 201,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During DECEMBER 2025

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for December, 2025 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.0%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +2.5%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual:  +0.2% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +2.0%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.3% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.5%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.5%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 10, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 10, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 198,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 207,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 205,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for DECEMBER 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, 2025:

=========================================

CPI During December 2025: 324.054

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: -0.021% (-0.068 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.68% (+8.449 points)

[prior = +2.74%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: FLAT

 - > Actual: -0.025% (-0.081 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.64% (+8.499 points)

[prior = +2.63%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During December 2024: 315.605

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
DECEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 3, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 3, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 208,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 200,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 211,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Manufacturing Index for DECEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for December, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 48.0%

• Actual: 47.9% (-0.3 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.2%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

 

•     'Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts.'
   [Machinery]
  

 

•     'Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible.'
   [Computer + Electronic Products]
  

 

•     'Things are not improving in the transportation equipment market. Many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20 percent to 30% below their historical buying patterns. Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets. Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we’re now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age.'
   [Transportation Equipment]
  

 

•     'In the current environment, our company is struggling with customer orders and financially overall. Our senior leaders are struggling to focus our business and get the company on track with quality products. In November, layoffs impacted about 9% of our workforce, affecting all locations in the U.S. and Europe.'
   [Machinery]
  

 

•     'Orders continue to drop for most of our businesses. Many plants are not running near full capacity. Make to order being utilized where possible.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

 

•     'Order levels have continued to decline: We had a bad October, an awful November and a dismal December. January and February don’t look too good, as bookings are down 25 percent compared to the first two months of 2025.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products]
  

 

•     'Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. It’s cold in our area of the country, absenteeism is worse around the holidays, and sales were lower than we expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak overall.'
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components]
  

 

•     'Global logistics remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts. Tariffs are influencing equipment pricing and procurement strategies. Large-scale data center programs are absorbing and reducing availability of resources for other sectors.' 
  [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products]
  

 

•     '2025 revenue was down 17 percent due to tariffs. The lost revenue has inhibited our ability to offer bonuses to employees or create and hire for new positions.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
December 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
December 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 27, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 27, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 201,000

• Actual: 199,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 215,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During November 2025

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for November, 2025 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2% month-on-month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.5%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Predicted: FLAT
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.9%
Actual:  76.0% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.5%

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...This release includes preliminary estimates for industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization for both October and November as well as revised estimates for May through September. IP rose 0.2% in November after ticking down 0.1% in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months.

Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4% in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8% of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5% above its year-earlier level.

Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average..."

===============

CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <