Housing Starts During October 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for October 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,306,000

• Actual: 1,246,000

Month-on-Month Change: -4.59% (-60,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.84% (-106,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

• Actual: 1,412,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.21% (-3,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.12%  (-16,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Employment Situation Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Employment Situation Report for December, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +50,000

Previous Month (revised): +56,000

October, 2025: -173,000
One-Year Previous: +323,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.4%
Previous Month: 4.5%
12-Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.4%
Previous Month: 8.7%
12-Months Previous: 7.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.33% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.76% (+$1.34)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.032% (+$0.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$45.82)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12-Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

DECEMBER 2005 thru DECEMBER 2025

   ===================

 

 Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Month-on-Month Change
DECEMBER 2023 thru DECEMBER 2025

 =================== 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 3, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 3, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

• Actual: 208,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 200,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 211,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 2, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 2, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels (-0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +24,000,000 Barrels (+2.97%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 832,500,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (BALANCE SHEET)
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS
  

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for NOVEMBER 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for November, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,146,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,449,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -4.07% (-303,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 8,031,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -11.02% (-885,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,115,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -3.62% (-192,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,161,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: +4.25% (+129,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,687,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.99% (-52,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,080,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -0.14% (-7,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
NOVEMBER 2010 thru NOVEMBER 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Manufacturing Index for DECEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for December, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 48.0%

• Actual: 47.9% (-0.3 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.2%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

 

•     'Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts.'
   [Machinery]
  

 

•     'Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible.'
   [Computer + Electronic Products]
  

 

•     'Things are not improving in the transportation equipment market. Many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20 percent to 30% below their historical buying patterns. Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets. Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we’re now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age.'
   [Transportation Equipment]
  

 

•     'In the current environment, our company is struggling with customer orders and financially overall. Our senior leaders are struggling to focus our business and get the company on track with quality products. In November, layoffs impacted about 9% of our workforce, affecting all locations in the U.S. and Europe.'
   [Machinery]
  

 

•     'Orders continue to drop for most of our businesses. Many plants are not running near full capacity. Make to order being utilized where possible.'
   [Chemical Products]
  

 

•     'Order levels have continued to decline: We had a bad October, an awful November and a dismal December. January and February don’t look too good, as bookings are down 25 percent compared to the first two months of 2025.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products]
  

 

•     'Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases. It’s cold in our area of the country, absenteeism is worse around the holidays, and sales were lower than we expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak overall.'
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components]
  

 

•     'Global logistics remains sensitive to geopolitical shifts. Tariffs are influencing equipment pricing and procurement strategies. Large-scale data center programs are absorbing and reducing availability of resources for other sectors.' 
  [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products]
  

 

•     '2025 revenue was down 17 percent due to tariffs. The lost revenue has inhibited our ability to offer bonuses to employees or create and hire for new positions.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
December 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
December 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 27, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 27, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 201,000

• Actual: 199,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 215,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending December 26, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 26, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -1,700,000 Barrels (-0.203%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +26,900,000 Barrels (+3.32%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 836,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS
  

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During November 2025

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for November, 2025 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2% month-on-month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.5%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Predicted: FLAT
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.9%
Actual:  76.0% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.5%

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...This release includes preliminary estimates for industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization for both October and November as well as revised estimates for May through September. IP rose 0.2% in November after ticking down 0.1% in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months.

Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4% in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8% of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5% above its year-earlier level.

Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average..."

===============

CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 20, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 20, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 214,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 224,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First (INITIAL) Estimate for Q3, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FIRST (INITIAL) estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +3.8% (revised)

• Actual: +4.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the third / final estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q3, 2025 - FIRST / INITIAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

CHART: Contributions to Change in Real GDP
Q3, 2025 - FIRST / INITIAL ESTIMATE

 ============  

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for NOVEMBER 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, 2025:

=========================================

CPI During November 2025: 324.122

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: N/A

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.74% (+8.629 points)

[prior = N/A]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3

 - > Actual: N/A

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.63% (+8.478 points)

[prior = N/A]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During November 2024: 315.493

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
NOVEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 13, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 13, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 226,000

• Actual: 224,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 237,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 217,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for OCTOBER 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.026% (+$189,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During October 2025: $732,633,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +3.47% (+$24,563,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru OCTOBER 2025
OCTOBER 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Employment Situation Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Employment Situation Report for November, 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +64,000

Previous Month (revised): -105,000
One Year Previous: +261,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.6%
Previous Month: N/A
12-Months Previous: 4.2%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.7%
Previous Month: N/A
12-Months Previous: 7.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.14% (+$0.05)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.51% (+$1.25)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.43% (+$5.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.51% (+$42.88)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: N/A
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

NOVEMBER 2005 THRU NOVEMBER 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <