Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): FLAT

• Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.2% 

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +0.5% (prior = +0.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +3.6%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
APRIL 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.7%

• Actual: +0.06% (+417,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During April 2025: $724,131,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +5.16% (+$35,502,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru April 2025
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 10, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 10, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 229,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 229,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 230,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 9, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 9, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 441,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for APRIL 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for April 2025:
=========

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 95.8

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -1.64 % (-1.6 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +6.8% (+6.1 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
APRIL 2025 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...The Small Business Optimism Index fell by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased, six decreased, and one was unchanged. Expected business conditions and unfilled job openings contributed the most to the decline in the Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 4 points from March to 92...

CREDIT MARKETS
...A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from March. Three percent reported that financing and interest rates were their top business problem in April, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. A net 6% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up 2 points from March. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.9 percent, unchanged from March. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 2 points from March. High mortgage rates have slowed housing activity, a damper on GDP growth. But loan availability is good....

..Very few small businesses export their goods and services, but millions acquire imported goods as inputs to their operations and those supply chains are currently at risk. Tariff policy is suddenly and dramatically changing relative prices (costs), and relative prices drive all decisions. Uncertainly remains elevated and thus caution clouds spending, hiring, and investing decisions. Currently, the Uncertainty Index stands at 92, the 51-year average is 68. The average since 2016 is 80..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 97.4

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 89.7

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025:

=========================================

CPI During April 2025: 320.795

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.311% (+0.996 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.31% (+7.247 points)

[prior = +2.39%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.27% (+0.882 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.78% (+8.837 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During April 2024: 313.548

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q1 2025 (Preliminary)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2025 (preliminary):

Nonfarm Productivity
Previous:  +1.5%
Actual: -0.8%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.4%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Previous: +2.2%
Actual: +5.7%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.3%

=============

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Labor Productivity + Unit Labor Costs
Q1 2021 Through Q1 2025 (Preliminary)

===================   

From Today's Report

 

"...This is the first decline in nonfarm business sector labor productivity since the second quarter of 2022..."

 ===================

 Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

===================

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May 9, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 9, 2025: Once again, the NASDAQ Composite index ended the week in correction territory...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.36% (-3,764.66 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.13% (-2,244.97 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.88% (-484.24 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 9, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 85% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 18, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 3, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 3, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 228,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 241,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 2, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 2, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -21,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 438,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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May 2, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 2, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite index finished the week in correction...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.21% (-3,696.61 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -10.89% (-2,196.16 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.45% (-457.48 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 2, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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Employment Situation Report for April 2025

The Employment Situation Report for April 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +177,000

Previous Month (revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 118,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.17% (+$0.06)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.77% (+$1.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.167% (+$2.06)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.07% (+$48.41)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
APRIL 2005 THRU APRIL 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 26, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 26, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 241,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 223,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for April 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for April 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During March 2025: 105,441

• Previous Month: 275,240

  > Change from previous month: -61.69% (-169,799 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 64,789
  

 > Change from one-year previous: +62.75% (+40,652 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...So far this year, employers have announced 602,493, the highest year-to-date total since 2020 when 1,017,812 job cuts were recorded. It is up 87% from the 322,043 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

The Government leads all sectors in job cuts this year with 282,227, 281,452 of which are attributed to DOGE-related cost-cutting. This is up 680% from the 36,195 job cuts announced in this sector through April 2024.

In April, the number of job cuts announced in this industry was 2,782. DOGE actions were attributed to 2,731, while the rest were attributed to 'Economic Conditions' and 'Cost-Cutting.'

'DOGE Actions'  lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172, 2,919 of which occurred in April. Another 6,945 cuts were attributed to 'DOGE Downstream Impact' through April, primarily at Non-Profits and Education organizations. These reasons combined (290,117) make up 48% of all job cuts announced so far in 2025..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +3.0%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First (Advance) Estimate for Q1, 2025

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +2.4%

• Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q1, 2025 - First Estimate / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for March 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,192,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,480,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,093,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -11.13% (-901,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,411,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.11% (-61,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,332,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: +0.09% (+3,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,558,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.47% (-56,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,137,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.49% (-131,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
MARCH 2010 thru MARCH 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for April 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for April 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 50.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.42% (-4.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -32.38% (-25.00 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2024: 77.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions.

Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation.

Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak.

Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.

As seen in the chart, inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month. After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March.

Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents..."

=========

  

CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated After
Surging and Softening Modestly Following
April 2025 Tariff Developments
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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