Employment Situation Report for MAY 2025

The Employment Situation Report for May 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +139,000

Previous Month (revised): 147,000
One Year Previous: 193,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.8%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.42% (+$0.15)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.87% (+$1.35)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.42% (+$5.14)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.87% (+$46.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
MAY 2005 THRU MAY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for MAY 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for May 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During May 2025: 93,816

• Previous Month: 105,441

  > Change from previous month: -11.03% (-11,625 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 63,816

 > Change from one-year previous: +47.01% (+30,000 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...'Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces. Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices,' said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Why are Companies Cutting in 2025?

'DOGE Impact' remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 284,044 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. Additionally, DOGE Downstream Impact, such as the loss of funding to private Non-Profits, was cited in another 10,459 cuts.

Market and Economic Conditions were the second-most cited reason for workforce reductions, responsible for 131,257 cuts year to date, followed by Closings of stores, units, or plants, which led to 94,439 layoffs.

Restructuring accounted for 62,015 cuts, while Bankruptcy was attributed to 35,501. Notably, Technological Updates, including those related to AI implementation, led to 20,000 job cuts so far in 2025..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
MAY 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 31, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 31, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 240,000

• Actual: 247,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 239,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 235,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 30, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 30, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -4,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -19,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 436,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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U.S. Factory Shipments During April 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for April 2025:

========

Predicted: -3.5%

• Actual: -3.69% (-22,804,000,000)

========

• April 2025 New Shipments: $594,614,000,000.
  
  
• March 2025 New Shipments: $617,418,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$3,565,000,000 | +0.61% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
APRIL 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for April, 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,200,000

• Actual:   7,391,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,200,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 7,619,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -2.99% (-228,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,573,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -0.2% (-11,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,194,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -6.44% (-220,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,786,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +12.54% (+199,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,288,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.86% (-100,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
APRIL 2010 thru APRIL 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: FLAT (No Change)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -24.46% (-16.9 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods. Expected business conditions improved after mid-month, likely a consequence of the trade policy announcement. However, these positive changes were offset by declines in current personal finances stemming from stagnating incomes throughout May. Overall, consumers see the outlook for the economy as no worse than last month, but they remained quite worried about the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 6.6%, inching up from 6.5% last month. This is the smallest increase since the election and marks the end of a four-month streak of extremely large jumps in short-run expectations. Notably, long-run inflation expectations fell back from 4.4% in April to 4.2% in May.

This is the first decline seen since December 2024 and ends an unprecedented four-month sequence of increases. Given that consumers generally expect tariffs to pass through to consumer prices, it is no surprise that trade policy has influenced consumers’ views of the economy. In contrast, despite the many headlines about the tax and spending bill that is moving through Congress, the bill does not appear to be salient to consumers at this time..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in May 2025,
Ending Four Straight Months of Steep Declines
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.3%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 23, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 23, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 440,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 24, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 24, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 240,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 226,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 230,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 17, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 17, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 227,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 229,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 231,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 16, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 16, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 443,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Leading Economic Index for April 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2025:

==============

Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -1.00% (-1.0 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.26% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -2.68% (-1.4 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -26.48% (-18.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes.

Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture -- consumers continue to express somber views about the economy. The initial reaction so far echoes the very minor increase in sentiment seen after the April 9 partial pause on tariffs, despite which sentiment continued its downward trend.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% last month to 7.3% this month. This month’s rise was seen among Democrats and Republicans alike. Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans. The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations..."

=========

CHART: Consumers Anticipate Rising Unemployment
and Elevated Risks of Personal Job Loss
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): FLAT

• Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.2% 

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +0.5% (prior = +0.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +3.6%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
APRIL 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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