PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.6%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.6%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: FLAT

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.3%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 ===================== 

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays + Savings - July 2023 Update

   =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.1%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.8%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: FLAT
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q1, 2023

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2023:

============

Predicted: 1.5%

• Actual: +1.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

 

• Core PCE Price Index: +4.9%

 

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

CHART: Personal Income
+ Outlays + Saving - Q1 2023 UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.8

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.7%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.7%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.5%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for September 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.6%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.5%
Actual: +0.5%

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.1%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q3, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022:

============

Predicted: +2.5%

• Actual: +2.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Q3 2022 - First Estimate

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for August 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.4%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.5%
Actual: +0.6%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.9%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.2%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

=====================

  

 

CHART: Changes In Consumer Spending
July 2022 Update

 

=====================

=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: FLAT
Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.4%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

=====================

  

 CHART: Month-On-Month Change In
Consumer Spending
May 2022 Update

 

=====================

=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.6% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q1, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022:

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Predicted: +1.5%

• Actual: -1.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

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From Today's Report:

"...Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income increased $247.2 billion (revised) in the first quarter to a level of $21.26 trillion. In the fourth quarter, personal income increased $186.2 billion. The increase primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits. In the first quarter, government assistance payments in the form of social benefits to households decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or continued to taper off.


Disposable personal income decreased $58.8 billion (revised), or 1.3 percent, in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $72.4 billion, or 1.6%, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 7.8% (revised), compared with a decrease of 4.5%. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in the first quarter (revised), compared with $1.45 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.6% (revised) in the first quarter, compared with 7.9% in the fourth quarter..."

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate

 

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +1.0

• Actual: +0.9%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.7%

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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.4%

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• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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CHART: Month-On-Month Change In
Consumer Spending
April 2022 Update

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%

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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.9%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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