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Economy

Economic Indicators (USA)

Friday, February 29, 2008

All 3 Majors Declined On Both The Day and The Week

All 3 major indexes lost ground on both the day and the week. Stocks were dragged down by discouraging reports on jobs, new and existing home sales, new orders for durable goods, consumer confidence and consumer sentiment. Insurance behemoth American International Group (AIG), a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component, reported loses of $5.29 billion for Q4, 2007. Crude oil for future delivery ended the week at $101.84 per barrel, while New York Spot Gold closed at $974.30 per ounce.

For the week, the DJIA lost 114.63 points (-0.926%), the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 31.87 points (-1.384%), and the S and P 500 Index declined by 22.48 points (-1.661%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 12,266.39 (-315.79)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,271.48 (-60.09)

S and P 500: Closed @ 1,330.63 (-37.05)

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NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Future closed @ $101.84/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $974.30/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.6588 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.518 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 3.0%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.53%

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Consumer Sentiment for February 2008

The Consumer Sentiment figure for this month (February 2008):

Predicted: 70.0
Actual: 70.8

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 78.4.

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Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for January 2008

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during January 2008:

Personal Consumption Expenditures
(a.k.a. Consumer Spending)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, February 28, 2008

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 23, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on February 23, 2008:

Predicted: 350,000
Actual: 373,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Preliminary" Released Today for Q4 2007

The preliminary, real U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the fourth quarter of 2007 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.6%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure. The GDP report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The final GDP report for Q4, 2007, which will contain the most authoritative data for the third quarter, will be released on March 27, 2008.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 22, 2008

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 22, 2008 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +3,200,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -20,500,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 308,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.

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Durable Goods Orders Report for January 2008 Released Today

The Durable Goods Orders report for January 2008 was released this morning:

Predicted: -3.5%
Actual: -5.3%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Home Sales for January 2008

The January 2008 New Home Sales report was released this morning:

Predicted: 600,000

Actual New Home Sales: 588,000

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Change from One Month Ago: -2.8%

Change from One Year Ago: -33.9%

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Median Price for a New Home during January: $216,000

Average Price for a New Home during January: $276,600


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Redbook Numbers for The Week of February 23, 2008

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on February 23, 2008 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +0.6%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 0.6% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in February of 2007.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February, 2008

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (February, 2008) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 81.3
Actual: 75.0
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 87.9.

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Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, 2008

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, 2008 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +1.0%

Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core PPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%


The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The PPI is a family or amalgamation of indexes, including The:

  • All Commodities Index
  • Crude Energy Materials Index
  • Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs Index
  • Crude Materials for Further Processing Index
  • Finished Goods Index
  • Finished Consumer Foods Index
  • Finished Consumer Goods Index
  • Finished Consumer Goods Excluding Foods Index
  • Finished Energy Goods Index
  • Finished Goods: Capital Equipment Index
  • Finished Goods Excluding Foods Index
  • Finished Goods Less Energy Index
  • Finished Goods Less Food & Energy Index
  • Fuels & Related Products & Power Index
  • Industrial Commodities Index
  • Intermediate Energy Goods Index
  • Intermediate Foods & Feeds Index
  • Intermediate Materials: Supplies & Components Index

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Monday, February 25, 2008

Existing Home Sales for January 2008

The Existing Home Sales report for January 2008 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 4,840,000
Actual: 4,890,000
Change from Last Month: -0.4%
Change from Last Year: -23.4%

The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Median Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In January 2008: $201,100
Change from Last Year: -4.6%

Average Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In January 2008: $247,700
Change from Last Year: -3.7%

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.

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Friday, February 22, 2008

DJIA and The S&P 500 Advanced On The Week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S and P 500 Index both advanced on the 4-day trading week, while the NASDAQ Composite declined. Key commodities advanced: NY Spot Gold closed at $944.60 per ounce while crude oil for future delivery, which surpassed the $100 per barrel threshold this week, closed at $98.81 today.

For the week, the DJIA added 32.81 points (+0.266%), the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 18.45 points (-0.795%), and the S and P 500 Index added 3.12 points (+0.231%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 12,381.02 (+96.72)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,303.35 (+3.57)

S and P 500: Closed @ 1,353.11 (+10.58)

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NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Future closed @ $98.81/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $944.60/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.6744 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.4828 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 3.0%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.79%

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Thursday, February 21, 2008

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 15, 2008

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 15, 2008 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +4,200,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -22,300,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 305,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.

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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for February, 2008

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its diffuse index of current manufacturing conditions for this month (February):

Predicted: -12.0
Actual: -24.0

The "actual" figure above is an index of current manufacturing conditions within the Federal Reserve's Third District, which includes eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware and the southern half of New Jersey. Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Philadelphia Fed report.

Last month, the actual figure was -20.9.

For a national perspective of manufacturing conditions, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 16, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on February 16, 2008:

Predicted: 348,000
Actual: 349,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Leading Economic Indicators for January, 2008

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for January, 2008 was released this morning:

Actual: -0.1%

The above figure represents the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

  1. The Money Supply (M2)

  2. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index

  3. The interest rate spread between the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note and Fed Funds

  4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods

  6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  7. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  8. The Index of Consumer Expectations

  9. Vendor performance

  10. Building permits for new private housing

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2008

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2008:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

The above numbers represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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The CPI figure for January, 2008: 211.08 (not seasonally adjusted)

Change from 01/2007 through o 01/2008: +4.3%

The baseline 100 score is pegged to 1982-1984 data. In other words, consumer prices have more than doubled since the early 80's.

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General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food & Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods & Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report
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Redbook Numbers for The Week of February 16, 2007

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on February 16, 2007 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +0.8%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 0.8% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in February of 2007.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

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Friday, February 15, 2008

All 3 Majors Advanced On The Week

All 3 major indices advanced on the week thanks in part to a surprisingly healthy retail sales report and news that the nation's trade deficit improved at the end of last year. Crude oil prices edged higher, while NY Spot Gold got cheaper.

For the week, the DJIA added 166.08 points (+1.363%), the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 16.95 points (+0.735%), and the S and P 500 Index added 18.70 points (+1.405%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 12,348.21 (-28.77)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,321.80 (-10.74)

S and P 500: Closed @ 1,349.99 (+1.13)

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WTI Crude Oil Future closed @ $95.50/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $901.70/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.681 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.4684 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 3.0%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.78%

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Thursday, February 14, 2008

International Trade Balance Level for December, 2007

The International Trade Balance Level for December, 2007 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $ -61,600,000,000
Actual: $ -58,800,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the balance of trade -- imports vs. exports -- between the United States and all other countries, and includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 8, 2008

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 8, 2008 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +1,100,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -22,800,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 301,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for January, 2008

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for January, 2008:

Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

Minus Auto Sales
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual : +0.3%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

  • Change since last year: +3.9%.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Friday, February 08, 2008

All 3 Majors Lost Over 4 Percent On The Week

Each of the 3 major indexes shed more than 4 percent this week, as recession fears and concerns about the health of bond insurers continued to plagued markets. Commodities like gold and crude oil edged higher.

For the week, the DJIA lost 561.06 points (-4.403%), the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 108.51 points (-4.496%), and the S and P 500 Index lost 64.81 points (-4.596%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 12,182.13 (-64.87)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,304.85 (+11.82)

S and P 500: Closed @ 1,331.29 (-5.62)

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NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Future closed @ $91.77/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $923.20/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.6893 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.4507 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 3.0%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.654%

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Friday, February 01, 2008

All 3 Majors Advanced On The Day and On The Week Despite Worrisome Jobs Report

All 3 major indices advanced on both the day and the week despite a worrisome employment situation report. Earlier in the week, the Fed cut short-term interest rates by 50 basis points, as expected.

For the week, the DJIA gained 536.02 points (+4.391%), the NASDAQ Composite Index added 87.16 points (+3.747%), and the S and P 500 Index advanced by 64.81 points (+4.871%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 12,743.19 (+92.83)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,413.36 (+23.50)

S and P 500: Closed @ 1,395.42 (+16.87)

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NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Future closed @ $88.96/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $907.90/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.6756 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.4802 U.S. Dollars

The Federal Funds Target Rate is 3.0%

10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 3.6%

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Consumer Sentiment for January, 2008 (Revised)

The revised Consumer Sentiment figure for this month (January, 2008):

Predicted: 79.0
Actual: 78.4

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 75.5.

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ISM Manufacturing Index for January, 2008

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for January, 2008:

Predicted: 47.0%
Actual: 50.7%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country that are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: when the PMI is above 50%, U.S. manufacturing is expanding; when it's below 50%, the manufacturing sector is contracting.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the PMI was 48.4% (revised.)

Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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Construction Spending during December, 2007

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department -- released the Construction Spending report for December, 2007:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -1.1%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Change from one year ago: -2.3%

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Employment Situation Report for January, 2008

The Employment Situation report for January, 2008 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.226%


Non-farm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +58K
Actual: -17K


Average Workweek
Predicted: 33.8 hrs
Actual: 33.7 hrs


Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 4.9%
Actual: 4.9%

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money, b) unemployment is low and c) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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