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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, August 30, 2018

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for July 2018

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2018:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

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Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars:  +0.3%
  • Disposable Personal Income, 2012 Chained* Dollars +0.2% 

----------------------

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.


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=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.0%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


 =====================

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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 25, 2018

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 25, 2018:

Predicted: 214,000
Actual: 213,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (unrevised): 210,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 212,250
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 24, 2018

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 24, 2018 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: -2,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): -52,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 405,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Second Estimate for Q2, 2018

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2018 :

Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.2%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

"...Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $72.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $26.7 billion in the first quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $16.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $9.3 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $63.6 billion, compared with an increase of $32.3 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $8.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of $3.7 billion. In the second quarter, receipts decreased $6.0 billion, and payments increased $2.0 billion..."

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GDP, Second Quarter 2018, Second Estimate
GDP, Second Quarter 2018, Second Estimate
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  • On September 27, 2018, a third and "final" GDP estimate will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data for the second quarter of  2018.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2018

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August 2018) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 126.8
Actual: 133.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 127.9.
 
  •  Change from Previous Month: +4.3% (+5.5 points)
==========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in August, following a modest increase in July. The Index now stands at 133.4 (1985=100), up from 127.9 in July. The Present Situation Index improved from 166.1 to 172.2, while the Expectations Index increased from 102.4 last month to 107.6 this month...

'Consumer confidence increased to its highest level since October 2000 (Index, 135.8), following a modest improvement in July,' said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved further. Expectations, which had declined in June and July, bounced back in August and continue to suggest solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018. Overall, these historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term.'

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved further in August. Those stating business conditions are 'good' increased from 38.1 percent to 40.3 percent, while those saying business conditions are 'bad' declined from 10.3 percent to 9.1 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also more favorable. Those claiming jobs are 'plentiful' was virtually unchanged at 42.7 percent, while those claiming jobs are 'hard to get' declined from 14.8 percent to 12.7 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook bounced back in August. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 22.9 percent to 24.3 percent, but those expecting business conditions will worsen marginally rose, from 10.3 percent to 10.5 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 22.6 percent to 21.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs also decreased, from 15.2 percent to 14.1 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement rose from 20.4 percent to 25.5 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined, from 9.4 percent to 7.0 percent.
.."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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Monday, August 27, 2018

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2018

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2018:

Predicted: +0.38
Actual (CFNAI): +0.13

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

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  • Previous Month (revised): +0.48
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.05
==================


Chicago Fed National Activity Index with Business Cycles - July 2018 Update
Chicago Fed National Activity Index with Business Cycles - July 2018 Update

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From Today's Report

"...Index points to a moderation in economic growth in July

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.13 in July from +0.48 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.05 in July from +0.20 in June..."
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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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Friday, August 24, 2018

Durable Goods Orders During July 2018

The Durable Goods Orders report for July 2018 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: -0.8%
Actual: $246,852,000,000 (-$4,253,000,000 [-1.694%])

================

  • June 2018: $251,105,000,000 (+$1,731,000,000 [+0.694%])
 
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Durable Goods Orders - July 2018 Update
Durable Goods Orders - July 2018 Update

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The yellow-highlighted figures represent the dollar amount of new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.




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Thursday, August 23, 2018

New Home Sales During July 2018

The July 2018 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 649,000
Actual New Home Sales: 627,000

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Change from One Month Previous: -1.7%

Change from One Year Previous: +12.8%

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Median Price for a New Home during July 2018: $328,700

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Average Price for a New Home during July 2018: $394,300


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Inventory: 5.9 months (seasonally adjusted / annualized)

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New Home Sales - July 2018 Update
New Home Sales - July 2018 Update

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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 18, 2018

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 18, 2018:

Predicted: 215,000
Actual: 210,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (unrevised): 212,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 213,750
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Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 17, 2018

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 17, 2018 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: -5,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): -54,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 408,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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Existing Home Sales During July 2018

The Existing Home Sales report for July 2018 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) this morning:

Predicted: 5,420,000
Actual: 5,340,000

  •  Change from Previous Month: -0.7%

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -1.5%
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Inventory: 1,920,000 (4.3 months supply)

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The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During July: $269,600

Change from One Year Previous: +4.5%

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Average Price for A Used Home During July: $307,800

Change from One Year Previous: +3.0%

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  • The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.

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    Friday, August 17, 2018

    Leading Economic Index for July 2018

    The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2018 this morning:

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    Index for July: 110.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

    Predicted: +0.4%
    Actual: +0.636%

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    • June 2018 Reading: 110.0 (+0.548%)

    • May 2018 Reading: 109.4 (+0.091%)

    ==============

    The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

    The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

    1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

    2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

    3. Building permits for new private housing

    4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

    5. ISM® Index of New Orders

    6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

    7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

    8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

    9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

    10. Leading Credit Index™

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    Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2018 Update
    Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2018 Update

    ==============

    From Today's Report:

    "...'The U.S. LEI increased in July, suggesting the US economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of this year,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The strengths among the components of the leading index were very widespread, with unemployment claims, the financial components, and the ISM® New Orders Index making the largest positive contributions.'..."

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      Thursday, August 16, 2018

      Housing Starts During July 2018

      The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for July 2018:

      ---------------------------------------------------

      Housing Starts:
      Predicted: 1,271,000
      Actual: 1,168,000

      Change From Previous Month: +0.9%
      Change From One Year Previous: -1.4%

      ---------------------------------------------------

      Building Permits:
      Predicted: 1,307,000
      Actual: 1,311,000

      Change From Previous Month: +1.5%
      Change From One Year Previous: +4.2%

      ----------------------------------------------------

      Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

      ================


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      Housing Starts - July 2018 Update
      Housing Starts - July 2018 Update

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      New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 11, 2018

      Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 11, 2018:

      Predicted: 215,000
      Actual: 212,000

      The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      • Previous Week (revised): 214,000
      • 4-Week Moving Average: 215,500
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      Wednesday, August 15, 2018

      Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 10, 2018

      The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 10, 2018 was released this morning:

      -- Change from Last Week: +6,800,000 Barrels

      -- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): -52,300,000 Barrels

      -- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 414,200,000 Barrels

      Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

      The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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      Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During July 2018

      The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for July 2018 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

      Industrial Production:
      Predicted: +0.3%
      Actual: +0.1%

      Manufacturing:
      Predicted: +0.3%
      Actual: +0.3%

      The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

      Capacity Utilization Rate:
      Predicted: 78.2%
      Actual: 78.1

      The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

      The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      From today's report:

      "...Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent, the output of utilities moved down 0.5 percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth, the index for mining declined 0.3 percent. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average..."



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      Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q2 2018 (Preliminary)

      The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter of 2018 (preliminary):

      Nonfarm Productivity
      Predicted: +2.5%
      Actual: +2.9%

      Change from A Year Ago: +1.3%

      =============

      Unit Labor Costs
      Predicted: -0.2%
      Actual: -0.9%

      Change from A Year Ago: +1.9%

      =============

      The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


      For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

      The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

      The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.




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      U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2018

      The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2018:

      Predicted: +0.1%
      Actual: +0.5119% (+$2,585,000,000)

      The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

      =================

      -- Estimated Retail Sales During July 2018: $507,533,000,000

      -- Change from 12 Months Previous: +6.41% (+$30,572,000,000)

      =================

      -- Previous Month (revised): +0.197% (+$993,000,000)

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      Chart: Retail Sales - July 2018 Update
      Chart: Retail Sales - July 2018 Update

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      Tuesday, August 14, 2018

      NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July 2018

      The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for July 2018:

      =========

      Predicted: 107.1
      Actual: 107.9

      • Change from Previous Month: +0.653% (+0.7 point)
      • Change from 12 Months Previous: +2.567% (+2.7 points)

      =========

      The previous month's SBOI reading was 107.2.

      =========

      Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July 2018 Update
      Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July 2018 Update

      =========

      Chart: NFIB Small Business Outlook - July 2018 Update
      Chart: NFIB Small Business Outlook - July 2018 Update

      =========

      From today's report (note text in bold):


      "...The Small Business Optimism Index marked its second highest level in the survey’s 45-year history at 107.9, rising to within 0.1 point of the July 1983 record-high of 108. The July 2018 report also set new records in terms of owners reporting job creation plans and those with job openings. A seasonally-adjusted net 23 percent are planning to create new jobs, up three points from June. Thirty-seven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, a one-point increase from June.

      'Small business owners are leading this economy and expressing optimism rivaling the highest levels in history,' said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. 'Expansion continues to be a priority for small businesses who show no signs of slowing as they anticipate more sales and better business conditions.'

      A net eight percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months compared to the prior three months. July is the eighth consecutive strong month of reported sales gains after years of low or negative numbers.  A net 35 percent of owners expect better business conditions, ticking up two points from June.

      Additional July highlights include:

      -- The percent of owners citing the availability of qualified workers as their number one business problem landed one point below the record high.

      -- Reports of compensation increases remained strong.

      -- Capital spending maintained a respectable pace but did not display the exuberance of its fellow indicators, although spending plans did post a gain.

      -- Plans to add to inventory holdings were strong as strong sales continue to deplete stocks.

      -- Profits continued to perform, and more firms raised prices, something that is easier when demand is strong.


      'Small business owners have never been so optimistic for so long, helping to power the second longest expansion in history,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Despite challenges in finding qualified workers to fill a record number of job openings, they’re taking advantage of this economy and pursuing growth.'

      Fifty-nine percent reported hiring or trying to hire (down four points), but 52 percent (88 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.  Twenty-three percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their single most important business problem (up two points), one point below the 45-year record high..."

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      • Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.
      • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
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      Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2018

      The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2018:

      Import Prices
      Predicted: +0.1%
      Actual: Unchanged (0.0%)

      Change From 12 Months Previous: +4.8%

      ===============

      Export Prices
      Predicted: +0.2%
      Actual: -0.5%

      Change From 12 Months Previous: +4.3%

      ===============
       
      The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

      • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
      • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

      Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.



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      Friday, August 10, 2018

      Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2018

      Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  July 2018:

      =========================================

      Predicted: +0.2%
      Actual: +0.2%

      (Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%)

      =========================================

      Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

      Predicted: +0.2%
      Actual: +0.2%

      (Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%)

      =========================================

      The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

      The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      General categories that constitute the CPI are:

      • Healthcare
      • Housing
      • Clothing
      • Communications
      • Education
      • Transportation
      • Food and Beverages
      • Recreation
      • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

      =========================================

      Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - July 2018 Update
      Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - July 2018 Update

      =========================================


       

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      Thursday, August 09, 2018

      New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 4, 2018

      Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 4, 2018:

      Predicted: 220,000
      Actual: 213,000

      The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      • Previous Week (revised): 219,000
      • 4-Week Moving Average: 214,250
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      Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2018

      The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2018 was released this morning:

      Predicted: +0.3%
      Actual: Unchanged (0.0%)

      Change from 12 months previous: +3.3%

      =============

      Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

      Predicted: +0.3%
      Actual: +0.1%

      Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%

      =============

      The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

      Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

      The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

      The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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      Wednesday, August 08, 2018

      Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 3, 2018

      The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 3, 2018 was released this morning:

      -- Change from Last Week: -1,400,000 Barrels

      -- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): -68,000,000 Barrels

      -- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 407,400,000 Barrels

      Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

      The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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      Tuesday, August 07, 2018

      Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June 2018

      The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June 2018 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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      Job Openings

      Predicted: 6,650,000
      Actual:    6,662,000

      • Previous Month (revised): 6,659,000

      • One Year Previous: 6,125,000

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      Hires: 5,651,000

      Total Separations: 5,502,000

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      The above, yellow-highlighted percentage represents the estimated number of job openings in the United States during the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      Here's how the Labor Department defines Total Separations:

      "Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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      Friday, August 03, 2018

      Employment Situation Report for July 2018

      The Employment Situation Report for July 2018 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

      Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
      Predicted: +190,000
      Actual: +157,000


      U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
      Actual: 3.9%
      Previous Month: 4.0%
      12 Months Previous: 4.3%

      U-6 Unemployment Rate*
      Actual: 7.5%
      Previous Month: 7.8%
      12 Months Previous: 8.5%

      Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
      Predicted: +0.3%
      Actual: +0.259% (+$0.07)

      Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
      Predicted: +2.7%
      Actual: +2.696% (+$0.71)

      Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
      Actual: -0.03% (-$0.28)


      Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
      Actual: +2.994% (+$27.13)

      Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.9%
      Previous Month: 62.9%
      12 Months Previous: 62.9%

      Average Workweek
      Predicted: 34.5 hours
      Actual: 34.5 hours

      Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

      The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      From today's report:


      "...In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $27.05
      [+0.259%]. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or [+2.696%]. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.65 [+0.133%] in July.

      The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up from +244,000 to +268,000, and the change for June was revised up from +213,000 to +248,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 59,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged
      224,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
      ======

       * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

      "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."




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      Thursday, August 02, 2018

      New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 28, 2018

      Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 28, 2018:

      Predicted: 218,000
      Actual: 218,000

      The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

      • Previous Week (unrevised): 217,000
      • 4-Week Moving Average: 214,500
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